TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Mls · resolved market

New York City FC vs. Toronto FC: O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$42,568
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$45,106

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,568 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Over17c18,500$3,211 inLost-$3,210.9199340.1%398 W · 595 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over18c3,562$641 inLost-$641.2127837.8%105 W · 173 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over20c2,556$503 inLost-$503.1768150.8%346 W · 335 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over15c2,302$353 inLost-$352.811,88036.6%688 W · 1,192 L-7.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb340…1ad1backed Under79c1,581$1,249 inWon+$332.01837.5%3 W · 5 L-2.7wins-0.34per pick72cpaid-49.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over19c1,453$281 inLost-$281.333,01243.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L-29.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc283…b876backed Over20c1,111$222 inLost-$222.211225%3 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x882c…8148backed Over18c500$90 inLost-$906124.6%15 W · 46 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x13f7…85d5backed Over17c297.88$51 inLost-$50.710612.3%13 W · 93 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9028…8608backed Under79c173.83$138 inWon+$36.175966.1%39 W · 20 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Under79c173.83$138 inWon+$36.1712058.3%70 W · 50 L+6.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc46e…9ed8backed Over17c147.05$25 inLost-$251921.1%4 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick33cpaid-34.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xba57…1e84backed Over20c144.85$29 inLost-$28.971040%4 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61c6…2e9fbacked Over18c106.56$19 inLost-$19.18540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29d4…5d18backed Under79c103.38$82 inWon+$21.251866.7%12 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0977…53ccbacked Over22c100$22 inLost-$223542.9%15 W · 20 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4bf…60f8backed Over20c72.84$15 inLost-$14.9312850%64 W · 64 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ce4…b727backed Over16c62.5$10 inLost-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfeef…4b1fbacked Under79c56.63$45 inWon+$11.894459.1%26 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick61cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed Over20c53.82$11 inLost-$10.7519642.9%84 W · 112 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x50e5…e39fbacked Under79c31$24 inWon+$6.5118456.5%104 W · 80 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc036…30d4backed Under79c25.32$20 inWon+$5.32977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick71cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a98…dc9cbacked Under79c25.32$20 inWon+$5.324100%4 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+51.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Under77c25$19 inWon+$5.7531446.5%146 W · 168 L-10.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3654…1b78backed Under79c20$16 inWon+$4.210257.8%59 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.