Mls · resolved market
New York City FC vs. Toronto FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3fa2d51daf9be34387e5d56f2443e4813d843397418722755b31a8ce9e31ae9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,291
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,048
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,291 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 40c | 1,467$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$885.41 | 328 | 48.8%160 W · 168 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 60c | 1,343$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.76 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…0fc3backed Under | 10c | 1,128$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 37c | 937.28$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.7 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bea…038ebacked Under | 6c | 500.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d5…36bfbacked Over | 63c | 490$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.3 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.8wins | -0.25per pick | 52cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 39c | 412$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.43 | 355 | 50.4%179 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Over | 15c | 399.95$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.96 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 64c | 307.88$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.91 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…5b51backed Under | 42c | 305.05$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.29 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…5c87backed Over | 75c | 258.8$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.69 | 206 | 60.7%125 W · 81 L | +19.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 60c | 248.67$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.2 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Over | 39c | 243$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.2 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 65c | 242.47$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.86 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 62c | 186$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.55 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9955…e803backed Under | 35c | 174.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.17 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 41c | 116.83$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912f…b25bbacked Over | 65c | 105$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 56c | 104$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.64 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 61c | 85.76$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.37 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a92…8586backed Under | 19c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Under | 42c | 70.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 273 | 44.3%121 W · 152 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c8…142bbacked Under | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9732…cd57backed Under | 23c | 60.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…4f9dbacked Over | 64c | 58.13$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 40c | 53.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 62c | 52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 64c | 49.11$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x254b…7df6backed Over | 66c | 47.53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed Over | 41c | 47.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.96 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 40c | 47.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 60c | 47.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 196 | 45.9%90 W · 106 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4438…f659backed Under | 64c | 46.21$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Under | 61c | 45.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -9.9wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2116…eb8fbacked Under | 31c | 44.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…965abacked Under | 46c | 44.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 86 | 24.4%21 W · 65 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 64c | 30.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee3…2e6abacked Over | 36c | 30.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91e7…6716backed Under | 64c | 30.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 169 | 48.5%82 W · 87 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d9…1059backed Over | 48c | 27.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68f8…12c8backed Under | 63c | 19.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -4.5wins | -0.34per pick | 65cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Under | 64c | 15.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York City FC vs. Toronto FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5this page
- New York City FC vs. Toronto FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- New York City FC vs. Toronto FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- New York City FC vs. Toronto FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- New York City FC vs. Toronto FC: New York City FC O/U 1.5Under won
- New York City FC vs. Toronto FC: New York City FC O/U 2.5Under won
- New York City FC vs. Toronto FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- New York City FC vs. Toronto FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- New York City FC vs. Toronto FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- New York City FC vs. Toronto FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- New York City FC vs. Toronto FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- New York City FC vs. Toronto FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- New York City FC vs. Toronto FC: Toronto FC O/U 0.5Over won
- New York City FC vs. Toronto FC: Toronto FC O/U 1.5Under won
- New York City FC vs. Toronto FC: Toronto FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: New York City FC (-1.5)Toronto FC won
- Spread: New York City FC (-2.5)Toronto FC won
- Spread: Toronto FC (-1.5)New York City FC won
- Spread: Toronto FC (-2.5)New York City FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.