Mls · resolved market

Spread: New York City FC (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf0d05a11de71d83fd5227e0db364e69185dfa8e1386377a755164f60c091dff

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Toronto FCof New York City FC, Toronto FC
Resolved: Jul 31, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $54,070
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $56,602

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,070 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Mls
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xdc41…dd7ebacked New York City FC	33c	9,328$3,073 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,073.42	355	50.4%179 W · 176 L	+9.0wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x744c…e37fbacked Toronto FC	65c	8,021$5,248 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,772.98	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ef…2864backed New York City FC	33c	7,252$2,374 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,374.31	61	45.9%28 W · 33 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed New York City FC	29c	5,959$1,738 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,737.59	989	45.4%449 W · 540 L	-23.9wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Toronto FC	67c	5,838$3,928 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,910.47	3,012	43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L	-29.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddf4…2680backed Toronto FC	67c	4,478$3,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,477.61	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+1.4wins	+0.34per pick	66cpaid	+52.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed New York City FC	5c	2,008$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.38	1,880	36.6%688 W · 1,192 L	-7.3wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Toronto FC	66c	1,358$897 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$461.84	263	45.2%119 W · 144 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed New York City FC	30c	1,324$401 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$401.24	993	40.1%398 W · 595 L	+11.8wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed New York City FC	18c	1,076$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.93	472	40.7%192 W · 280 L	-8.0wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99d6…513fbacked Toronto FC	52c	1,042$542 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$500.2	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Toronto FC	66c	1,005$663 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$341.65	1,270	48%610 W · 660 L	-7.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf531…121cbacked New York City FC	35c	843.74$295 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$295	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Toronto FC	67c	822$551 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$271.26	1,444	36.8%532 W · 912 L	-12.0wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked New York City FC	33c	821.94$271 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$271.24	333	46.8%156 W · 177 L	-14.0wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Toronto FC	66c	769.47$511 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$258.95	530	46.4%246 W · 284 L	-15.2wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Toronto FC	65c	769$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$269.15	915	53%485 W · 430 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed Toronto FC	66c	751$499 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$251.61	200	43%86 W · 114 L	+7.3wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x75fc…0a4cbacked New York City FC	34c	502.94$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.13per pick	38cpaid	-43.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa36f…180bbacked Toronto FC	66c	493.56$326 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$167.81	29	48.3%14 W · 15 L	-1.7wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York City FC	31c	432.22$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.33	1,262	45.2%571 W · 691 L	-28.1wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Toronto FC	68c	392.29$267 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$125.53	681	50.8%346 W · 335 L	+12.6wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Toronto FC	67c	340.83$229 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$111.41	728	50.7%369 W · 359 L	-4.4wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4bf…60f8backed Toronto FC	67c	324.08$218 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105.67	128	50%64 W · 64 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50cc…a534backed New York City FC	34c	294.12$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	27	59.3%16 W · 11 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	+1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbae1…d8abbacked Toronto FC	68c	294.12$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94.12	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29d3…ccf6backed New York City FC	33c	289.55$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.55	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.3wins	-0.17per pick	42cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed New York City FC	32c	275.6$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.19	264	50%132 W · 132 L	-5.3wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed Toronto FC	67c	270.78$183 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.05	196	42.9%84 W · 112 L	-9.0wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f3f…959bbacked New York City FC	17c	237$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.29	27	22.2%6 W · 21 L	-3.3wins	-0.12per pick	34cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe84f…b777backed Toronto FC	68c	228.01$154 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.85	123	56.9%70 W · 53 L	+4.4wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa710…f1ccbacked New York City FC	33c	227.27$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	27	37%10 W · 17 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked Toronto FC	67c	200$134 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66	50	50%25 W · 25 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3388…61d7backed New York City FC	31c	199.96$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.99	169	60.9%103 W · 66 L	+11.1wins	+0.07per pick	54cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2f5f…f7aebacked Toronto FC	69c	194.2$134 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.2	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+0.6wins	+0.06per pick	54cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Toronto FC	67c	175$117 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.26	1,301	51.2%666 W · 635 L	-19.6wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf009…19e9backed New York City FC	18c	138.89$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	243	26.3%64 W · 179 L	-7.7wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Toronto FC	67c	126.85$85 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.86	394	35.8%141 W · 253 L	-6.0wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xddf1…a604backed Toronto FC	46c	124.31$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.51	18	77.8%14 W · 4 L	+3.4wins	+0.19per pick	59cpaid	+27.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Toronto FC	51c	103.92$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.92	81	44.4%36 W · 45 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1230…c70bbacked Toronto FC	67c	103.42$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.13	17	82.4%14 W · 3 L	+4.2wins	+0.25per pick	57cpaid	+43.7%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked New York City FC	31c	102$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.17	444	47.3%210 W · 234 L	-1.6wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x13d0…4a70backed Toronto FC	71c	100$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-4.3wins	-0.33per pick	48cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xdc36…0665backed New York City FC	33c	100$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	23	30.4%7 W · 16 L	-4.1wins	-0.18per pick	48cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4cfd…3d84backed Toronto FC	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	40	32.5%13 W · 27 L	+2.3wins	+0.06per pick	27cpaid	+23.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Toronto FC	51c	100$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49	66	51.5%34 W · 32 L	+3.5wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe70…7533backed New York City FC	32c	100$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	21	57.1%12 W · 9 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e82…7ab7backed Toronto FC	50c	90.74$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.74	25	68%17 W · 8 L	+5.3wins	+0.21per pick	47cpaid	+38.9%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5659…7a6bbacked New York City FC	31c	85.07$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.47	529	23.8%126 W · 403 L	-25.8wins	-0.05per pick	29cpaid	-18%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed New York City FC	32c	80.75$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.15	352	47.7%168 W · 184 L	-6.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1393…d0abbacked New York City FC	52c	76.92$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.5wins	-0.30per pick	50cpaid	-71.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked New York City FC	30c	72.7$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.91	871	54.6%476 W · 395 L	+34.2wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d67…3667backed Toronto FC	67c	65.15$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.5	71	47.9%34 W · 37 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe368…e9edbacked New York City FC	32c	62.5$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.15per pick	32cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed Toronto FC	74c	60$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.7	395	67.1%265 W · 130 L	+60.8wins	+0.15per pick	52cpaid	+45.3%equal weight	66+0.14 edge/pick
0xd5ad…cdfdbacked Toronto FC	67c	59.7$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.7	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed New York City FC	33c	59.25$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.55	702	49.7%349 W · 353 L	-7.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked New York City FC	45c	59.15$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.58	110	46.4%51 W · 59 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x50e5…e39fbacked Toronto FC	68c	59$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.88	184	56.5%104 W · 80 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x42c7…c415backed Toronto FC	67c	56.85$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.5	32	56.3%18 W · 14 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62e8…a242backed Toronto FC	67c	56.82$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.53	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.3wins	+0.44per pick	56cpaid	+87.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9bdb…a90dbacked Toronto FC	53c	54.58$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.65	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.06per pick	36cpaid	+30.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x83d9…10d9backed Toronto FC	67c	51.59$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.95	118	48.3%57 W · 61 L	+3.6wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed Toronto FC	51c	48.82$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.92	125	51.2%64 W · 61 L	+9.7wins	+0.08per pick	43cpaid	+19.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x332d…7b0ebacked New York City FC	32c	46.41$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.85	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.39per pick	39cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfeef…4b1fbacked Toronto FC	67c	45.66$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.07	44	59.1%26 W · 18 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	61cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a1e…f992backed Toronto FC	51c	43.14$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.14	37	43.2%16 W · 21 L	+1.6wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	+12%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked New York City FC	49c	41$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.12	366	46.7%171 W · 195 L	-7.7wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Toronto FC	69c	37.76$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.79	802	49.8%399 W · 403 L	+8.0wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b25…10aabacked New York City FC	32c	32.26$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.32	54	64.8%35 W · 19 L	+3.3wins	+0.06per pick	59cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb663…f135backed Toronto FC	51c	29.41$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.41	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Toronto FC	68c	29$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.28	129	51.2%66 W · 63 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Toronto FC	68c	28$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.96	734	38.1%280 W · 454 L	-7.5wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1086…9ec2backed Toronto FC	53c	26.7$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.55	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.47per pick	53cpaid	+88.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0464…67dabacked Toronto FC	68c	26.47$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.56	76	59.2%45 W · 31 L	+4.6wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1ecf…8554backed Toronto FC	67c	24.67$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.03	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.9wins	+0.46per pick	54cpaid	+95%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8e1…9bc1backed Toronto FC	68c	23.82$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.65	20	65%13 W · 7 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	61cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdef1…e893backed Toronto FC	67c	23.4$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.72	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+1.2wins	+0.18per pick	39cpaid	+51.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d5f…1171backed Toronto FC	68c	22.16$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.11	96	54.2%52 W · 44 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xd819…2d80backed Toronto FC	67c	20.75$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.85	55	49.1%27 W · 28 L	-3.6wins	-0.07per pick	56cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3654…1b78backed Toronto FC	67c	20.15$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.65	102	57.8%59 W · 43 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Toronto FC	69c	20$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.2	923	46.6%430 W · 493 L	-9.9wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf27…f35fbacked Toronto FC	68c	17.64$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.64	34	52.9%18 W · 16 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: New York City FC (-1.5)this page
New York City FC vs. Toronto FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
New York City FC vs. Toronto FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
New York City FC vs. Toronto FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
New York City FC vs. Toronto FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
New York City FC vs. Toronto FC: New York City FC O/U 1.5Under won
New York City FC vs. Toronto FC: New York City FC O/U 2.5Under won
New York City FC vs. Toronto FC: O/U 0.5Over won
New York City FC vs. Toronto FC: O/U 1.5Over won
New York City FC vs. Toronto FC: O/U 2.5Under won
New York City FC vs. Toronto FC: O/U 3.5Under won
New York City FC vs. Toronto FC: O/U 4.5Under won
New York City FC vs. Toronto FC: O/U 5.5Under won
New York City FC vs. Toronto FC: Toronto FC O/U 0.5Over won
New York City FC vs. Toronto FC: Toronto FC O/U 1.5Under won
New York City FC vs. Toronto FC: Toronto FC O/U 2.5Under won
Spread: New York City FC (-2.5)Toronto FC won
Spread: Toronto FC (-1.5)New York City FC won
Spread: Toronto FC (-2.5)New York City FC won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: New York City FC (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event