TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Mls · resolved market

New York City FC vs. Toronto FC: O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$58,461
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$59,176

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,461 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0346…52a5backed Under65c15,070$9,793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,277.798945.4%449 W · 540 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x191f…4a8dbacked Over41c13,244$5,392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,391.6914652.1%76 W · 70 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over34c7,282$2,452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,451.8199340.1%398 W · 595 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under59c5,649$3,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,316.187154.6%476 W · 395 L+34.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf958…db13backed Over34c3,785$1,287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,286.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over35c3,329$1,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,165.3127837.8%105 W · 173 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc283…b876backed Over38c3,048$1,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,145.351225%3 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over19c2,568$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50019044.7%85 W · 105 L+9.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked Over37c2,440$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$896.462540%10 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Under66c1,750$1,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60072850.7%369 W · 359 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddf4…2680backed Under65c1,538$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.464100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under59c1,503$888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$615.343,01243.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L-29.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Under60c1,321$788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.2847240.7%192 W · 280 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed Under60c1,237$736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.6819642.9%84 W · 112 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Over38c1,200$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.6539435.8%141 W · 253 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ef…2864backed Under62c1,009$626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.416145.9%28 W · 33 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under65c1,000$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35035550.4%179 W · 176 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ee0…d6a6backed Under66c1,000$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3401963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ec5…fd53backed Under67c986.23$665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.016339.7%25 W · 38 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Under65c974.77$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.8170249.7%349 W · 353 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x425e…ecfabacked Over33c841.12$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.573050%15 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+34.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under65c838.17$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.0868150.8%346 W · 335 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x882c…8148backed Over32c650$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.56124.6%15 W · 46 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6534…7cc7backed Under68c569$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.0820133.3%67 W · 134 L+0.3wins0.00per pick33cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed Under59c562.21$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.865350.9%27 W · 26 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+53.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb476…6eacbacked Under75c535.59$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.864850%24 W · 24 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe462…e436backed Over24c504.17$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+204.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under63c500$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1857668.4%52 W · 24 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd871…6bbabacked Over49c482.98$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.664228.6%12 W · 30 L-6.1wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-38.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Under63c423.67$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.8122042.7%94 W · 126 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61d4…3593backed Over55c380$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.362839.3%11 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+142.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under71c359.56$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.731,88036.6%688 W · 1,192 L-7.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6701…d7d2backed Under60c321$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.44955.1%27 W · 22 L+5.0wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+7.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8152…5b51backed Under56c304.91$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.164850%24 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Under65c299.99$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.8326450%132 W · 132 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Under66c295.25$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.3933346.8%156 W · 177 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c27…54f2backed Over35c285.71$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under61c276.99$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.5580249.8%399 W · 403 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f41…8f27backed Over41c275.73$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.119747.4%46 W · 51 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42c7…c415backed Under60c251.45$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.723256.3%18 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Over31c234.8$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.6696756.8%549 W · 418 L+73.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9cab…f595backed Under61c229.51$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.51837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-0.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9900…5cc9backed Over37c227.59$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.46944.9%31 W · 38 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x021a…d3aebacked Under59c207.54$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.094100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed Under65c201.76$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.9120043%86 W · 114 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked Under65c200$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705050%25 W · 25 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x19e5…dd71backed Under60c185.55$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.222548%12 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x349e…867bbacked Under59c182.7$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.051275%9 W · 3 L+3.4wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+64.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Under59c154.14$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.8331446.5%146 W · 168 L-10.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under65c151.99$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.331,30151.2%666 W · 635 L-19.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xac86…985bbacked Under71c140.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.85560%3 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick72cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Under67c124.9$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.6820252%105 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1399…48c8backed Over31c118$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5820554.6%112 W · 93 L+17.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+29.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaf5d…df19backed Under52c117.31$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.311464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+31%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Over33c117$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.611,44436.8%532 W · 912 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec56…1816backed Under67c108.2$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.2316437.2%61 W · 103 L-11.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-34.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfa69…02c1backed Over46c107.53$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Over48c107$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.3627058.9%159 W · 111 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f5f…f7aebacked Over33c106.06$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351060%6 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21db…2a42backed Over49c101.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505431.5%17 W · 37 L-5.8wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-26.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x19d8…965abacked Under60c100.59$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.598624.4%21 W · 65 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed Under45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5527344.3%121 W · 152 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fe0…cc67backed Under60c98$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.22661.5%16 W · 10 L+3.6wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+17.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Under60c96.53$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.9244447.3%210 W · 234 L-1.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Under49c90$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.21,00946.2%466 W · 543 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5663…f2e5backed Under60c89.15$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.661250%6 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Over49c75.64$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.814344.2%19 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81e4…f356backed Under59c74.29$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.461369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc90a…1834backed Over34c73.94$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1218…511dbacked Over49c71.43$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9930…696ebacked Under66c70.68$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.037460.8%45 W · 29 L+12.8wins+0.17per pick44cpaid+38.6%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xf30a…61fbbacked Under58c69.91$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.2613464.9%87 W · 47 L+17.1wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+22.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Under68c66$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.7924046.7%112 W · 128 L-15.4wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-19.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over32c64.39$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.61,27048%610 W · 660 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Under65c64$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.427047%127 W · 143 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4aa…0904backed Over34c61.76$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-63.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4bf…60f8backed Under60c60.95$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.4512850%64 W · 64 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe84f…b777backed Under60c60.77$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.2312356.9%70 W · 53 L+4.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef18…4d70backed Over33c60.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.929460.5%178 W · 116 L+36.5wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+34.2%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Over35c59$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6532848.8%160 W · 168 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5981…3934backed Over36c58.64$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.114639.1%18 W · 28 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd60c…2b06backed Over34c55.2$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7731158.5%182 W · 129 L+27.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+23.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2892…e9d7backed Under64c52.52$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.839346.2%43 W · 50 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x70fc…ab12backed Over42c51.78$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.811323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.3wins-0.25per pick48cpaid-46.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa42f…b629backed Over34c50.76$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.264062.5%25 W · 15 L+7.7wins+0.19per pick43cpaid+40.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Under66c50.76$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2617137.4%64 W · 107 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Under59c43.53$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6535247.7%168 W · 184 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Under50c42.18$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.1344350.6%224 W · 219 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e82…7ab7backed Over38c39.47$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152568%17 W · 8 L+5.3wins+0.21per pick47cpaid+38.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed Under61c37.58$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.842166.7%14 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+21.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdaee…8559backed Over37c37.39$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.936653%35 W · 31 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe90f…a908backed Under63c34.79$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.873164.5%20 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5cc8…a0e4backed Under66c34.73$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.817263.9%46 W · 26 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Under59c34$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.8436646.7%171 W · 195 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x345c…b59dbacked Under59c33.74$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.751478.6%11 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.16per pick62cpaid+23.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9028…8608backed Under53c33.14$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.585966.1%39 W · 20 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2470…7ae6backed Over34c33$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.371241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Under66c31.25$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6380358%466 W · 337 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8041…fc83backed Under66c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.22462.5%15 W · 9 L+3.3wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+31.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x114e…dcefbacked Under49c29.76$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.181580%12 W · 3 L+5.5wins+0.37per pick43cpaid+87.7%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.