TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Mls · resolved market

New York City FC vs. Toronto FC: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$76,816
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$80,943

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,816 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over60c6,695$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00019044.7%85 W · 105 L+9.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Under45c6,349$2,841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,507.4998945.4%449 W · 540 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Under45c5,000$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,749.8117740.7%72 W · 105 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ec5…fd53backed Under45c4,970$2,227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,742.846339.7%25 W · 38 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29b1…f737backed Over59c3,388$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001250%6 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over64c3,370$2,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,171.3499340.1%398 W · 595 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc482…b505backed Under22c2,255$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,758.83966.7%26 W · 13 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x15e9…26bebacked Over45c2,200$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$990540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Over62c2,196$1,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,365.0317137.4%64 W · 107 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over57c1,707$973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$972.7827837.8%105 W · 173 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe39…5c3cbacked Over56c1,599$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8ef…2864backed Under41c1,449$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$857.686145.9%28 W · 33 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa700…102bbacked Under43c1,402$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801.512917.2%5 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-49.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8152…5b51backed Under9c1,395$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,263.324850%24 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61d4…3593backed Under42c1,371$582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$788.952839.3%11 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+142.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under40c1,250$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75055750.1%279 W · 278 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under40c1,250$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75068550.5%346 W · 339 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Under42c1,187$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.4670249.7%349 W · 353 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Over55c1,171$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644.0552639.5%208 W · 318 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over63c1,033$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645.671,26245.2%571 W · 691 L-28.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb476…6eacbacked Over51c1,002$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.584850%24 W · 24 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3bf5…2307backed Under39c970.22$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$589.041573.3%11 W · 4 L+2.8wins+0.19per pick55cpaid+32.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5dd1…d33cbacked Over55c895.32$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under35c641.44$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.953,01243.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L-29.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d6a…4adabacked Over76c609.75$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.415458.4%90 W · 64 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+15.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2968…1e6ebacked Under26c601.15$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.49366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick33cpaid+105.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6534…7cc7backed Under45c582$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.120133.3%67 W · 134 L+0.3wins0.00per pick33cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Over60c536.91$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.6636247.2%171 W · 191 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbae1…d8abbacked Under44c454.55$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.55450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed Under40c421$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.620043%86 W · 114 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8193…8c82backed Over58c420$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.6450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ee0…d6a6backed Over43c400$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1721963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Over65c360$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.361,00946.2%466 W · 543 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Over55c350.8$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.941,44436.8%532 W · 912 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x880b…90a8backed Over73c343.8$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+53.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Under50c325.62$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.2836646.7%171 W · 195 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x114e…dcefbacked Under40c300$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1801580%12 W · 3 L+5.5wins+0.37per pick43cpaid+87.7%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x583e…a2a6backed Over60c300$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+44.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd91a…211cbacked Over39c287.18$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1125337.7%20 W · 33 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+24.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under62c239.96$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.4780249.8%399 W · 403 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked Over59c199.99$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1185050%25 W · 25 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b6e…f544backed Over55c181.8$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9910338.8%40 W · 63 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Under47c169.01$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.7731446.5%146 W · 168 L-10.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe84f…b777backed Under35c168.49$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.7412356.9%70 W · 53 L+4.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x186a…559dbacked Over60c166.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002955.2%16 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick57cpaid+8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9955…e803backed Under40c160.75$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.89742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+13.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Over63c159.54$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.1244447.3%210 W · 234 L-1.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Under58c153.74$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.4247240.7%192 W · 280 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0eca…c56abacked Under40c152.28$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.0414549.7%72 W · 73 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae1…8c1bbacked Over34c150$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-41.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4bf…60f8backed Under36c146.99$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.5612850%64 W · 64 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03c9…d8c1backed Over60c141$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.62751.9%14 W · 13 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc36…0665backed Over57c134$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.382330.4%7 W · 16 L-4.1wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-33.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Under40c132.5$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.58144.4%36 W · 45 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under22c131.54$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.1312839.8%51 W · 77 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Under40c127.5$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.56651.5%34 W · 32 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Under36c125.9$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.3120252%105 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcdd…0ecdbacked Over58c125.86$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-34.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbdd…bd60backed Under44c125$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x53eb…90ebbacked Under42c119.05$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.051145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf423…31c4backed Under40c116.75$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.133145.2%14 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d13…cd85backed Under45c108.67$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.77333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-25.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2c8…142bbacked Under25c108$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$815813.8%8 W · 50 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-22.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0e5c…ab50backed Over75c108$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8160%0 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd60c…2b06backed Over65c103.9$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.1631158.5%182 W · 129 L+27.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+23.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2f5f…f7aebacked Over58c103.45$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601060%6 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Under46c101.33$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.7335247.7%168 W · 184 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0576…6232backed Under41c101.26$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.748129.6%24 W · 57 L-10.9wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-32.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x19d8…965abacked Under40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$608624.4%21 W · 65 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa42f…b629backed Over71c100$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$714062.5%25 W · 15 L+7.7wins+0.19per pick43cpaid+40.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x9696…2bc3backed Over56c100$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-21.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb797…1cf3backed Under44c99.3$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.61862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+40%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c7f…4c60backed Over54c97.87$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.855050%25 W · 25 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under41c92.92$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.821,30151.2%666 W · 635 L-19.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xef18…4d70backed Over63c92.75$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7129460.5%178 W · 116 L+36.5wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+34.2%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Over55c91.44$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2935149.6%174 W · 177 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20aa…b3dcbacked Under44c90.91$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.91560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick36cpaid+45.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x50e5…e39fbacked Under19c90$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.918456.5%104 W · 80 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb18…6f32backed Over56c89.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf15…a1febacked Over55c86.21$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.425068%34 W · 16 L+5.8wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Over65c81.49$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.896756.8%549 W · 418 L+73.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Under40c79.65$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.7953046.4%246 W · 284 L-15.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4438…f659backed Over55c78.4$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.122835.7%10 W · 18 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-36.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Over58c76.67$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4239435.8%141 W · 253 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed Under35c75.91$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.1519642.9%84 W · 112 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0977…53ccbacked Over55c74.62$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.043542.9%15 W · 20 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9900…5cc9backed Over63c69.81$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.996944.9%31 W · 38 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Over57c68$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7632848.8%160 W · 168 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa69…02c1backed Over69c67.14$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.45837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x45a6…2d17backed Over60c66.67$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1399…48c8backed Over59c66$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9420554.6%112 W · 93 L+17.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+29.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2892…e9d7backed Under41c64.92$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.39346.2%43 W · 50 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3555…208ebacked Over55c63.64$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353174.2%23 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick66cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc9db…6789backed Under80c59.58$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.018760.9%53 W · 34 L+13.7wins+0.16per pick45cpaid+24.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x443b…e8bbbacked Over60c56.55$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.934656.5%26 W · 20 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over58c54$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3235550.4%179 W · 176 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb109…d40fbacked Over58c51.72$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302356.5%13 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9aa0…0520backed Under33c50.58$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+205.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3110…c3f5backed Under40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed Over47c49.16$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.142161.9%13 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.