TailMyPicks
Market

MLB · resolved market

Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,857
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,846

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,857 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6b1e…65c1backed Over44c2,775$1,221 inWon+$1,553.9829948.8%146 W · 153 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under56c2,506$1,404 inLost-$1,403.512,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under51c1,106$559 inLost-$558.7911,51952.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L+213.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked Over46c1,092$503 inWon+$589.9191252.4%478 W · 434 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcba5…cd88backed Under49c1,022$500 inLost-$50066250.2%332 W · 330 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd81e…e3d0backed Over58c425.35$247 inWon+$178.6532351.7%167 W · 156 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over54c314.03$168 inWon+$145.663,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under42c302.08$127 inLost-$126.988,40347.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Over54c296$160 inWon+$136.164,08757.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L+66.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8fd…3e24backed Over59c200$118 inWon+$8211047.3%52 W · 58 L-8.5wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-14.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Under56c120$67 inLost-$67.21,11945.5%509 W · 610 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Under42c120$50 inLost-$50.42,31151%1,179 W · 1,132 L+25.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Over45c88.89$40 inWon+$48.8947549.7%236 W · 239 L+17.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Under41c86.84$36 inLost-$35.63,84142.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L+0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Over51c84$43 inWon+$40.886,30548.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L+181.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb77…1c78backed Over45c80$36 inWon+$4427846.8%130 W · 148 L+10.8wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x07cd…fbebbacked Over54c64.78$35 inWon+$29.843560%261 W · 174 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0954…012abacked Over59c50.85$30 inWon+$20.851,19753.9%645 W · 552 L+42.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xff2a…bfefbacked Over45c40$18 inWon+$2231343.5%136 W · 177 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8890…cefbbacked Over59c35.42$21 inWon+$14.6250962.9%320 W · 189 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Over59c33.68$20 inWon+$13.8159749.9%298 W · 299 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over45c31.46$14 inWon+$17.238,19246.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L+38.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x167a…d542backed Under47c27$13 inLost-$12.6930340.6%123 W · 180 L-16.4wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-11.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x27b1…6a0bbacked Under59c20.68$12 inLost-$12.247552.4%249 W · 226 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9555…889abacked Over59c20.25$12 inWon+$8.31,00157.3%574 W · 427 L+2.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.