MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5315451e3332e30f215e4e4f048912b8858958461814390133b1c2bf3e8fc25d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago White Soxof Philadelphia Phillies, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,869
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,920
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,869 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 5c | 3,865$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.74 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago White Sox | 68c | 1,428$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.53 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 35c | 828.86$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.47 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Chicago White Sox | 74c | 502.35$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.75 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 479.9$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.47 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 34c | 422.85$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.77 | 1,947 | 53.1%1,033 W · 914 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Philadelphia Phillies | 18c | 298.97$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.26 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Chicago White Sox | 70c | 268.47$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.58 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 185.43$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.83 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed Philadelphia Phillies | 26c | 134.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 286 | 39.2%112 W · 174 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c6…eeb6backed Philadelphia Phillies | 21c | 132.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 159 | 42.8%68 W · 91 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 27c | 129.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Philadelphia Phillies | 27c | 117$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Chicago White Sox | 63c | 99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.63 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Chicago White Sox | 59c | 90.47$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.09 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Chicago White Sox | 66c | 36.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b95…5733backed Chicago White Sox | 74c | 26.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Chicago White Sox | 55c | 20.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Chicago White Sox | 80c | 19.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb549…ae63backed Chicago White Sox | 58c | 19.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Chicago White Sox | 70c | 16.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc02c…4066backed Chicago White Sox | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2259…6a52backed Chicago White Sox | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e3d…9674backed Chicago White Sox | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9685…634fbacked Chicago White Sox | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 74cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9993…a11cbacked Chicago White Sox | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 12.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 13.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 14.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.