MLB · resolved market
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b412ec28239e0f8b55b460c21c7a4858f92f09dc55d04b93356f6a5f63346c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,231
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,231 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xced2…d98abacked Under | 74c | 13,535$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 56c | 6,000$3,389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,610.53 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 22c | 4,713$1,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,671.4 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 51c | 4,703$2,398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,398.07 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Under | 52c | 3,468$1,799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,799.23 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 39c | 3,189$1,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,960.94 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 25c | 2,897$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,158.69 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Under | 52c | 2,756$1,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,433.27 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 49c | 2,009$974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,034.62 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 48c | 1,403$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.56 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Over | 51c | 1,176$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.47 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Under | 51c | 988.9$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 383 | 53.8%206 W · 177 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Under | 55c | 927.27$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 660 | 50.2%331 W · 329 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Over | 48c | 682.99$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.81 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 60c | 623.4$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.3 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Over | 48c | 588.33$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.93 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 48c | 556.27$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.15 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Under | 52c | 482.11$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Over | 48c | 460.38$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.45 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 48c | 433$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.16 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ae…dc88backed Over | 48c | 411$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.68 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 51c | 318.51$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.84 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 49c | 249.8$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.6 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 58c | 207.07$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.39 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dec…c92dbacked Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 104 | 59.6%62 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 43c | 158.47$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.15 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa180…dd7abacked Over | 50c | 155.72$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 48c | 150$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 48c | 138.75$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.15 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec14…7fafbacked Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 478 | 49%234 W · 244 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac15…75a4backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 46c | 97.42$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.74 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 48c | 91$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.21 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a0c…14cebacked Under | 53c | 90.94$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 145 | 55.9%81 W · 64 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 50c | 88.02$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Over | 49c | 81.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.82 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Over | 44c | 81.82$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.82 | 276 | 46.7%129 W · 147 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 19c | 75.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 50c | 66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 44c | 54.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 50c | 50.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc38…bb0ebacked Over | 34c | 50.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3f…7320backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 37c | 48.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 49c | 40.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ad…71acbacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -8.5wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -23%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Under | 54c | 34.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 507 | 48.7%247 W · 260 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 58c | 33.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb772…ed49backed Over | 42c | 33.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Over | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b2…6a58backed Under | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 127 | 53.5%68 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 51c | 20.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0469…5eb0backed Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 155 | 49.7%77 W · 78 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 12.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 13.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 14.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.