TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,873
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,915

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,873 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x767a…8ac5backed No52c1,418$740 inWon+$678.2234650.9%176 W · 170 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf83d…367dbacked Yes48c1,000$480 inLost-$4806145.9%28 W · 33 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+51.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Yes47c200$94 inLost-$946,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61d8…b596backed No52c200$104 inWon+$964438.6%17 W · 27 L-6.3wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-27%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x094d…5a65backed No51c194.86$100 inWon+$94.864151.2%21 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+13%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x18b6…babfbacked Yes50c172.77$86 inLost-$8631449.4%155 W · 159 L-9.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Yes47c160.27$75 inLost-$75.331,29250.2%648 W · 644 L+18.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed Yes24c156.79$38 inLost-$37.9242241%173 W · 249 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid+1.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked No48c148$71 inWon+$76.962,29152.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6932…6878backed Yes48c140$67 inLost-$67.226845.9%123 W · 145 L+0.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00df…701bbacked Yes52c134.48$70 inLost-$69.939347.3%44 W · 49 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes48c118.84$57 inLost-$57.288,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked No52c100.73$53 inWon+$47.9128045.7%128 W · 152 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe04…a198backed No53c99.33$53 inWon+$46.693246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked No74c81.66$60 inWon+$21.455,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes50c80$40 inLost-$39.8844949.2%221 W · 228 L+1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62f9…ae42backed No73c54.79$40 inWon+$14.797962%49 W · 30 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed No71c52$37 inWon+$15.2877752.1%405 W · 372 L+36.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Yes24c50$12 inLost-$125,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca2b…3489backed Yes48c50$24 inLost-$2429242.5%124 W · 168 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick43cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3de2…d073backed Yes41c39.41$16 inLost-$16.231361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+29.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc9db…6789backed No79c33$26 inWon+$6.9326762.2%166 W · 101 L+43.9wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+58%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x02e0…3741backed Yes51c31.37$16 inLost-$1616349.1%80 W · 83 L-0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Yes49c22.99$11 inLost-$11.271,05648.3%510 W · 546 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Yes51c20.96$11 inLost-$10.681,80453.8%970 W · 834 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49b9…9613backed No65c20$13 inWon+$73764.9%24 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick64cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.