Europa Conference League · resolved market
PFK CSKA Sofia vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18a75b25c3cc7f0cb0a1482e6493166e5837187e7120e8318100a4cfb720a3a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,385
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,824
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,385 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56f4…9ec5backed Under | 54c | 7,523$4,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,486.28 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 51c | 5,756$2,924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,923.7 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 74c | 3,049$2,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.12 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f7…7656backed Over | 45c | 2,222$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8806…2e83backed Under | 61c | 1,639$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.34 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf18…3ca8backed Over | 51c | 949.61$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.36 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xded4…1e6dbacked Under | 41c | 487.8$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.8 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 48c | 464.15$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.67 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122b…ac59backed Over | 26c | 384.61$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.08 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 59c | 384.6$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.91 | 638 | 57.2%365 W · 273 L | +35.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Over | 49c | 310$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.4 | 181 | 45.9%83 W · 98 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 23c | 251.12$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.65 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa700…102bbacked Under | 47c | 212.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.76 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 65c | 211.28$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ff…879cbacked Under | 40c | 200$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a4…4751backed Over | 60c | 161.47$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.88 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 16c | 136.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 155 | 62.6%97 W · 58 L | +22.9wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x162c…6c47backed Under | 50c | 117.07$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.54 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 20c | 115.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +14.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 19c | 105.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 179 | 58.1%104 W · 75 L | +17.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7403…b24abacked Under | 63c | 103.2$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae5…4f22backed Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 45 | 73.3%33 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Over | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -5.2wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Over | 16c | 97.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 43c | 94$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.79 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Under | 54c | 70.4$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x434a…91cbbacked Over | 48c | 59.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 40c | 58.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 61c | 53.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 73c | 45.72$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 294 | 70.1%206 W · 88 L | +21.6wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Under | 43c | 43.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 266 | 47.4%126 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453d…2dbabacked Over | 29c | 42.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 29c | 36.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 334 | 46.7%156 W · 178 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 60c | 28.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -6.8wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 52c | 24.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 501 | 54.7%274 W · 227 L | +20.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Under | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv: O/U 4.5this page
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv: MH Maccabi Tel Aviv O/U 1.5Over won
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv: O/U 0.5Over won
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv: O/U 1.5Over won
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv: O/U 2.5Over won
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv: O/U 3.5Over won
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv: O/U 5.5Under won
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv: PFK CSKA Sofia O/U 1.5Under won
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv: Team to AdvancePFK CSKA Sofia won
- Spread: MH Maccabi Tel Aviv (-1.5)MH Maccabi Tel Aviv won
- Spread: MH Maccabi Tel Aviv (-2.5)PFK CSKA Sofia won
- Spread: PFK CSKA Sofia (-1.5)MH Maccabi Tel Aviv won
- Spread: PFK CSKA Sofia (-2.5)MH Maccabi Tel Aviv won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.