Europa Conference League · resolved market
PFK CSKA Sofia vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ce674846bff56e0300ce01957d24b0cb50b7eacb489d0b9d8fce2031f33e1db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,732
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,928
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,732 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x69e3…761fbacked Over | 76c | 4,000$3,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 76c | 3,259$2,477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.17 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 23c | 2,707$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.73 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa704…11c1backed Over | 76c | 2,561$1,946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.63 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…9fc9backed Under | 24c | 2,482$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.67 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 75c | 2,399$1,809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.34 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 24c | 933$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.62 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 23c | 868.65$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.78 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 18c | 606.54$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.18 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 19c | 515$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.18 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 25c | 403.93$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.98 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0189…cab8backed Over | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 18c | 386.85$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.68 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 8c | 326.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 73c | 305$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.2 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Under | 28c | 276$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.9 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56f4…9ec5backed Under | 6c | 254.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 24c | 165$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 24c | 139$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.36 | 535 | 64.7%346 W · 189 L | +29.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 72c | 138$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 24c | 123.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…fee6backed Under | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 75c | 99.85$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 655 | 49.8%326 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Over | 72c | 71.8$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 21c | 71.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 351 | 46.2%162 W · 189 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 25c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 389 | 52.7%205 W · 184 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 24c | 61.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 24c | 60.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 275 | 45.8%126 W · 149 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 24c | 58.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 324 | 36.4%118 W · 206 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 24c | 55.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 24c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 441 | 56%247 W · 194 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Under | 28c | 47.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Under | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9545…d6f7backed Over | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 28c | 39.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 254 | 40.6%103 W · 151 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 75c | 29.37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 153 | 52.9%81 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a7…7042backed Over | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 99 | 23.2%23 W · 76 L | -9.1wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…5925backed Over | 71c | 19.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 76c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 451 | 35.9%162 W · 289 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 72c | 14.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 1,114 | 35.8%399 W · 715 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv: O/U 1.5this page
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv: MH Maccabi Tel Aviv O/U 1.5Over won
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv: O/U 0.5Over won
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv: O/U 2.5Over won
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv: O/U 3.5Over won
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv: O/U 4.5Under won
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv: O/U 5.5Under won
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv: PFK CSKA Sofia O/U 1.5Under won
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv: Team to AdvancePFK CSKA Sofia won
- Spread: MH Maccabi Tel Aviv (-1.5)MH Maccabi Tel Aviv won
- Spread: MH Maccabi Tel Aviv (-2.5)PFK CSKA Sofia won
- Spread: PFK CSKA Sofia (-1.5)MH Maccabi Tel Aviv won
- Spread: PFK CSKA Sofia (-2.5)MH Maccabi Tel Aviv won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.