MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18d18afd42d14798cec4cbcfdbc792e2538b58969ce12c2f9de1157865b59b0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $217,310
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $217,864
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $217,310 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 47c | 191,098$89,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89,151.68 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 53c | 159,999$85,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74,599.53 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 52c | 11,921$6,237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,683.95 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 52c | 9,862$5,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,708.24 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Over | 48c | 7,500$3,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,600 | 489 | 52.8%258 W · 231 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 59c | 6,000$3,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,540 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 54c | 5,588$3,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,586.16 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 41c | 4,869$1,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,872.93 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 53c | 3,449$1,844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,604.53 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 54c | 3,000$1,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,380 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 72c | 2,659$1,923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.73 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Over | 23c | 2,173$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8af2…dca8backed Over | 48c | 2,083$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Under | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940 | 444 | 51.1%227 W · 217 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 54c | 1,950$1,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$902.85 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 53c | 1,912$1,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$898.65 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 49c | 1,453$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.12 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8f…c1f0backed Over | 46c | 1,302$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 47c | 1,260$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.12 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed Over | 49c | 1,150$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.5 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3c…e8c9backed Under | 52c | 961.53$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.53 | 349 | 42.7%149 W · 200 L | -19.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 54c | 671.98$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.8 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 52c | 600$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9698…2504backed Under | 53c | 588.28$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.49 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Under | 53c | 471.7$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.7 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 54c | 370.88$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.01 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 77c | 361.83$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.22 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Over | 36c | 304.98$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.89 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9437…235ebacked Over | 48c | 295.92$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.04 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Over | 48c | 277.1$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.01 | 1,137 | 42.6%484 W · 653 L | +10.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 53c | 250$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.5 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Under | 53c | 226.42$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.42 | 812 | 57.3%465 W · 347 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad99…dbabbacked Under | 53c | 214.15$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.66 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba4…6de0backed Over | 48c | 190.33$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.36 | 209 | 45%94 W · 115 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 54c | 190$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.4 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Under | 54c | 187.2$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.11 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 54c | 140$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 64c | 138.65$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.91 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 45c | 138$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 45c | 126.9$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.1 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 52c | 106.74$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3b…07c9backed Under | 52c | 97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.56 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x468e…4271backed Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Over | 46c | 86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.54 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 51c | 80$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Under | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 241 | 49%118 W · 123 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Under | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f8…7de3backed Over | 48c | 59.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 381 | 42%160 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 20c | 54.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Under | 63c | 49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 286 | 39.2%112 W · 174 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…82dfbacked Under | 53c | 42.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f5…f087backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb189…08bcbacked Under | 53c | 37.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8e…3dc3backed Under | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c22…7b22backed Under | 53c | 27.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f2…6d82backed Under | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b33…d653backed Under | 76c | 26.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14fc…d8f4backed Under | 76c | 26.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcec8…4bedbacked Under | 76c | 26.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 70c | 19.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb099…b313backed Under | 64c | 19.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…706abacked Under | 76c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 367 | 59.1%217 W · 150 L | +26.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Houston AstrosHouston Astros won
- Miami Marlins vs. Houston Astros: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Houston Astros won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.