MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b46946715a1d44d7bce28411fe6fa852bbe974bd13da50a3ce6c466abc7c38d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,337
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,481
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,337 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa2a0…b16bbacked Under | 68c | 8,865$6,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,865.38 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 45c | 6,148$2,766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,766.43 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 61c | 5,546$3,361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,185.02 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 34c | 4,729$1,586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,586.25 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 31c | 3,205$1,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,004.39 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Under | 74c | 1,961$1,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.79 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Over | 55c | 1,811$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002.24 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 45c | 1,024$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.2 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 56c | 953.34$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.67 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 57c | 940.11$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.72 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 44c | 906$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.15 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 44c | 500$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 4c | 493$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 44c | 374.74$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.98 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 44c | 301.75$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.49 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 44c | 285.57$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.92 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 45c | 276.07$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.2 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 26c | 203.85$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 26c | 196.15$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Over | 26c | 173.08$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 61c | 154.34$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.26 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 26c | 152$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42e9…80c7backed Over | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 30c | 115.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked Over | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 26c | 92.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Over | 32c | 89.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3b…07c9backed Over | 32c | 87.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18f6…0650backed Over | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Over | 33c | 72.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 56c | 69.64$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 75c | 65.62$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0b…d29dbacked Over | 44c | 65.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad99…dbabbacked Under | 44c | 63.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.46 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…932fbacked Under | 44c | 59.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.43 | 133 | 57.9%77 W · 56 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…039bbacked Over | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Over | 26c | 55.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14fc…d8f4backed Over | 34c | 52.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a76…3c34backed Over | 44c | 49.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 50c | 49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcec8…4bedbacked Over | 34c | 48.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b33…d653backed Over | 35c | 48.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0daf…17a9backed Under | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 145 | 59.3%86 W · 59 L | +13.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Over | 26c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 135 | 45.2%61 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 46c | 42.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 46c | 39.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…16c9backed Over | 38c | 34.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Over | 54c | 32.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 43c | 27.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed Over | 56c | 26.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb099…b313backed Over | 55c | 22.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 46c | 22.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 55c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 56c | 20.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Under | 60c | 20.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 204 | 56.9%116 W · 88 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Under | 56c | 19.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 55c | 19.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Houston AstrosHouston Astros won
- Miami Marlins vs. Houston Astros: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Houston Astros won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.