MLB · resolved market
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1904f545e73c3196f7e42a955ad802f7c356d8e665d06d432b27712c7dfc3be6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Diamondbacksof Baltimore Orioles, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,775
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,659
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,775 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2734…6d9ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 3,258$1,952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,306.43 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Baltimore Orioles | 11c | 2,106$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.68 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 40c | 2,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x039c…b202backed Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 1,305$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.11 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 1,111$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.34 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 78c | 739.13$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.84 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 720.11$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.75 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 551.07$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.33 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Baltimore Orioles | 45c | 536.95$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.75 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Baltimore Orioles | 47c | 343.48$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.55 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 66c | 338.25$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.38 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Baltimore Orioles | 45c | 326.97$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.7 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x363d…fe75backed Baltimore Orioles | 41c | 299.99$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 212 | 42.5%90 W · 122 L | -13.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 281.97$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.53 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f08…5afbbacked Baltimore Orioles | 40c | 254.45$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.78 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Baltimore Orioles | 41c | 248.36$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.82 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Baltimore Orioles | 40c | 241$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.4 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x428d…8cb6backed Baltimore Orioles | 42c | 229.81$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.52 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 216.81$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.55 | 114 | 56.1%64 W · 50 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Baltimore Orioles | 40c | 210.53$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.21 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 53c | 202.25$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.89 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 199.63$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.86 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 72c | 198.28$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.79 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Baltimore Orioles | 42c | 137.89$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.91 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d9…c125backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 122$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 218 | 56%122 W · 96 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 48c | 104.66$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.92 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 613 | 46.3%284 W · 329 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2d…4f43backed Baltimore Orioles | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Baltimore Orioles | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882a…cde2backed Baltimore Orioles | 25c | 91.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Baltimore Orioles | 54c | 89.14$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.13 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 41c | 80$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Baltimore Orioles | 40c | 77.7$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 75.04$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 366 | 49.2%180 W · 186 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Baltimore Orioles | 40c | 67.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Baltimore Orioles | 45c | 65.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 45c | 65.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 344 | 52.6%181 W · 163 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x610f…f6c3backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 41c | 64.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.2 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Baltimore Orioles | 41c | 58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 55.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 54.61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Baltimore Orioles | 46c | 52.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 66c | 52.36$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Baltimore Orioles | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 885 | 49.7%440 W · 445 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 49.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cc…3132backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 49.39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 40c | 47.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Baltimore Orioles | 24c | 47.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Baltimore Orioles | 40c | 46.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 41.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 39.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…b579backed Baltimore Orioles | 58c | 37.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 36.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20d1…8617backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 31.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 235 | 22.6%53 W · 182 L | -20.7wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb94…7bc0backed Baltimore Orioles | 47c | 29.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…10d9backed Baltimore Orioles | 40c | 28.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 355 | 47.3%168 W · 187 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Baltimore Orioles | 51c | 27.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x861b…d967backed Baltimore Orioles | 54c | 27.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 41c | 26.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 47c | 23.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 79c | 22.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8a11…9282backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 18.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 313 | 53%166 W · 147 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore OriolesArizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.