MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59895420ed9ba73ef0e4a26d3974d76e0ffe0d5264a460a79c642ffee6f2f803
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,603
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,194
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,603 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Yes | 38c | 573.13$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.09 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 60c | 415.76$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.59 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed No | 51c | 323.21$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.93 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Yes | 48c | 242.59$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.44 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 68c | 181.45$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.06 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Yes | 49c | 108.81$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.32 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee76…e67abacked No | 52c | 102.72$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.31 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 48c | 99.24$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.69 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No | 62c | 97.72$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.13 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe67…dd7ebacked No | 52c | 93.35$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.81 | 127 | 42.5%54 W · 73 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fd…b476backed Yes | 53c | 45.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 49c | 45.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Yes | 51c | 44.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Yes | 52c | 36.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Yes | 49c | 34.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 233 | 51.1%119 W · 114 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc744…6ce3backed No | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed No | 65c | 15.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Oriolesthis page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore OriolesArizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.