MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8bbe9f9d33bb2aa1169199a93155511c1872e23f92bb18eff5663782f9aac98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,434
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,615
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,434 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc28e…96febacked Over | 44c | 3,248$1,429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,429.31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 59c | 2,656$1,572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,084.48 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cea…b12dbacked Over | 45c | 2,355$1,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,069.48 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x882a…cde2backed Under | 63c | 2,150$1,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.55 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 37c | 2,111$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.49 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 63c | 1,592$1,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.86 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 17c | 1,155$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.43 | 1,194 | 29%346 W · 848 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 41c | 1,076$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.17 | 657 | 49.2%323 W · 334 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 65c | 946$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.83 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 32c | 585.56$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.86 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Under | 60c | 584.9$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.37 | 221 | 54.3%120 W · 101 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b55…1167backed Under | 63c | 482.45$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.51 | 108 | 60.2%65 W · 43 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 53c | 379.05$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.37 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 59c | 341.25$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.35 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 70c | 319.23$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.43 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 58c | 256.62$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.78 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 53c | 244.41$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.81 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 59c | 225.58$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.49 | 1,728 | 50.4%871 W · 857 L | +57.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x505a…bb61backed Over | 44c | 219.64$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.64 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 64c | 189.96$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.72 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 32c | 136.26$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d30…5f85backed Under | 64c | 134.91$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.9 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Under | 59c | 104.4$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.8 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 59c | 49.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 549 | 51.2%281 W · 268 L | +29.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20d1…8617backed Over | 32c | 46.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 24c | 45.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 34c | 42.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Over | 44c | 42.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 963 | 49%472 W · 491 L | -39.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 38c | 42.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…b579backed Over | 39c | 41.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Over | 49c | 36.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 150 | 45.3%68 W · 82 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 55c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 283 | 52.3%148 W · 135 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Under | 77c | 26.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 198 | 55.1%109 W · 89 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…abe7backed Under | 56c | 26.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Over | 42c | 23.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5db7…a264backed Under | 68c | 18.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 58c | 18.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Under | 75c | 14.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore OriolesArizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.