AI · resolved market
Will any AI model reach 1530 Math Arena Score by June 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1908eac5ccb58e70cd26384d230bade8ba3543d05d97a0e6abdc0218a40f8d90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,054
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,257
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,054 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 0c | 10,005$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 60c | 1,151$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.78 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 16c | 925.45$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.39 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5b…4ef4backed No | 54c | 879.33$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.67 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes | 40c | 605.34$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.7 | 79 | 6.3%5 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 48c | 312.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.5 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa794…42adbacked Yes | 50c | 280.64$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x956f…f960backed Yes | 38c | 250$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a3…9b79backed Yes | 38c | 250$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 66c | 243.33$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.98 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…297bbacked No | 27c | 215.66$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.38 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 72c | 200$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 58c | 150$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 51c | 101.22$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68d1…3c4dbacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 39c | 92.27$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 67c | 90.33$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.85 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 78c | 69$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 32c | 64.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.21 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…7bb2backed No | 25c | 58.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.81 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b72…38d5backed Yes | 72c | 56.16$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.69 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 47cpaid | +136.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 50c | 48.87$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 185 | 44.3%82 W · 103 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe84c…9277backed Yes | 39c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaccf…279ebacked Yes | 74c | 27.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d5…6f93backed Yes | 58c | 25.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -67%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 73c | 16.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will any AI model reach 1530 Math Arena Score by June 30, 2026?this page
- Will any AI model reach 1520 Math Arena Score by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will any AI model reach 1540 Math Arena Score by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by June 30, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.