Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x194465c2476489560e62b052495e87e54814beab014f68d42236467d253ae6f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Falconsof Team Falcons, Nigma Galaxy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $250,982
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $278,761
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $250,982 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 218 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Team Falcons | 65c | 64,732$42,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,643.84 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…8ff2backed Nigma Galaxy | 31c | 20,000$6,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,159.29 | 476 | 46.4%221 W · 255 L | +27.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9166…b479backed Nigma Galaxy | 35c | 14,977$5,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,242.12 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b0…329ebacked Team Falcons | 65c | 13,500$8,775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,724.99 | 802 | 56%449 W · 353 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe59f…0d08backed Team Falcons | 73c | 13,412$9,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,642.62 | 211 | 55.5%117 W · 94 L | +17.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Nigma Galaxy | 34c | 13,248$4,543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,543.5 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1de…21f5backed Nigma Galaxy | 33c | 10,000$3,298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,297.6 | 304 | 52.3%159 W · 145 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04f6…f24abacked Team Falcons | 68c | 9,098$6,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,893.53 | 503 | 47.1%237 W · 266 L | +14.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef26…05babacked Nigma Galaxy | 37c | 8,817$3,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,221.17 | 254 | 46.1%117 W · 137 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Nigma Galaxy | 35c | 8,796$3,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,079.55 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40db…ca8cbacked Team Falcons | 77c | 7,399$5,694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,704.92 | 540 | 58.9%318 W · 222 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2146…d41bbacked Nigma Galaxy | 34c | 7,029$2,371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,371.23 | 897 | 41.5%372 W · 525 L | +22.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…83ffbacked Nigma Galaxy | 31c | 4,842$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 534 | 51.7%276 W · 258 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…5700backed Nigma Galaxy | 29c | 3,804$1,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,103.88 | 686 | 49.7%341 W · 345 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bd…bbc5backed Team Falcons | 64c | 3,750$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350 | 537 | 64.4%346 W · 191 L | +26.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 29c | 3,397$979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$978.86 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…4289backed Team Falcons | 67c | 3,002$1,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,002.65 | 303 | 57.1%173 W · 130 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73f4…158ebacked Nigma Galaxy | 25c | 2,801$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.11 | 235 | 61.7%145 W · 90 L | +19.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3a…fbfdbacked Nigma Galaxy | 29c | 2,790$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.65 | 508 | 50.8%258 W · 250 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…39bcbacked Team Falcons | 71c | 2,650$1,879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.9 | 327 | 56.9%186 W · 141 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed Nigma Galaxy | 28c | 2,500$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.99 | 810 | 29.4%238 W · 572 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2929…1dd0backed Nigma Galaxy | 43c | 2,332$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Nigma Galaxy | 34c | 2,299$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.63 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Nigma Galaxy | 30c | 2,144$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.84 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa97f…a818backed Nigma Galaxy | 33c | 2,050$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.5 | 587 | 44%258 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad69…7397backed Nigma Galaxy | 34c | 2,000$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.99 | 511 | 40.3%206 W · 305 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…dc24backed Team Falcons | 69c | 1,982$1,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.42 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1365…c82abacked Team Falcons | 66c | 1,829$1,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.24 | 614 | 56%344 W · 270 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked Team Falcons | 63c | 1,751$1,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.5 | 798 | 59%471 W · 327 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x177e…c244backed Nigma Galaxy | 33c | 1,734$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.09 | 295 | 46.1%136 W · 159 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde24…4dedbacked Team Falcons | 74c | 1,516$1,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.29 | 198 | 53%105 W · 93 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5502…d440backed Team Falcons | 65c | 1,500$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525 | 454 | 57.5%261 W · 193 L | +39.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +14%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x63b1…1676backed Nigma Galaxy | 29c | 1,500$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Team Falcons | 67c | 1,476$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.71 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa936…8ee6backed Nigma Galaxy | 33c | 1,444$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.62 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2931…7b81backed Nigma Galaxy | 21c | 1,438$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 186 | 60.8%113 W · 73 L | +12.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…438fbacked Team Falcons | 76c | 1,408$1,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.97 | 21 | 85.7%18 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.18per pick | 68cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…ed37backed Nigma Galaxy | 33c | 1,400$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.99 | 574 | 49%281 W · 293 L | +33.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5357…3a0dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 35c | 1,394$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x758f…dfb7backed Nigma Galaxy | 36c | 1,389$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 346 | 67.9%235 W · 111 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eca…5a59backed Team Falcons | 65c | 1,383$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.4 | 400 | 51.5%206 W · 194 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa88…85a5backed Team Falcons | 64c | 1,327$849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.82 | 696 | 44.5%310 W · 386 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3752…2f08backed Nigma Galaxy | 33c | 1,250$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.5 | 344 | 42.2%145 W · 199 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4214…db99backed Nigma Galaxy | 33c | 1,105$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.66 | 363 | 43.3%157 W · 206 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Nigma Galaxy | 34c | 1,034$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.47 | 503 | 53.9%271 W · 232 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…2b35backed Nigma Galaxy | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 536 | 52.6%282 W · 254 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…4f30backed Nigma Galaxy | 34c | 999.99$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 377 | 45.4%171 W · 206 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…ae44backed Nigma Galaxy | 34c | 999.99$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 315 | 47.6%150 W · 165 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb69…cfd1backed Team Falcons | 78c | 954.75$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.75 | 303 | 56.4%171 W · 132 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b10…9659backed Team Falcons | 65c | 800$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 494 | 55.1%272 W · 222 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08cf…22b9backed Nigma Galaxy | 34c | 750$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 537 | 58.8%316 W · 221 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2965…89ebbacked Nigma Galaxy | 5c | 749.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37a8…8b4dbacked Team Falcons | 65c | 747.69$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.69 | 159 | 57.9%92 W · 67 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd19e…d70ebacked Nigma Galaxy | 46c | 719.87$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 208 | 59.6%124 W · 84 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48f7…3aebbacked Nigma Galaxy | 31c | 700$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.9 | 668 | 48.5%324 W · 344 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d6…6bf4backed Nigma Galaxy | 15c | 685.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85e9…2eeabacked Team Falcons | 74c | 666.61$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.53 | 67 | 67.2%45 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Team Falcons | 80c | 625$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 915 | 53.3%488 W · 427 L | +48.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked Team Falcons | 75c | 622.28$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.98 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x568d…87d0backed Nigma Galaxy | 37c | 611.83$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.38 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb88a…f6adbacked Nigma Galaxy | 31c | 607$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.14 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5633…59bcbacked Nigma Galaxy | 37c | 607$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.59 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f41…547cbacked Team Falcons | 65c | 562.98$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.04 | 131 | 42.7%56 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbd…c385backed Team Falcons | 71c | 560.55$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.55 | 226 | 65%147 W · 79 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cb…2345backed Nigma Galaxy | 33c | 541.83$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.8 | 259 | 35.5%92 W · 167 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34ec…2711backed Nigma Galaxy | 39c | 541.76$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.5 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b57…de6bbacked Team Falcons | 69c | 500$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3b…be27backed Nigma Galaxy | 29c | 500$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 210 | 47.6%100 W · 110 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0758…9532backed Nigma Galaxy | 34c | 499.99$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 184 | 37.5%69 W · 115 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf52…efdfbacked Team Falcons | 67c | 499.99$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 215 | 58.6%126 W · 89 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aff…b136backed Team Falcons | 59c | 499.98$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.99 | 324 | 45.1%146 W · 178 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Team Falcons | 69c | 495.68$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.19 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Nigma Galaxy | 22c | 483.96$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.01 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Nigma Galaxy | 35c | 475.51$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.09 | 507 | 49.7%252 W · 255 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Nigma Galaxy | 28c | 466.53$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.63 | 1,248 | 44.4%554 W · 694 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe559…b262backed Nigma Galaxy | 33c | 453.52$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.18 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | -6.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59e2…1c55backed Nigma Galaxy | 33c | 405.16$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.8 | 475 | 48%228 W · 247 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f30…8df6backed Team Falcons | 65c | 404.41$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.54 | 165 | 55.2%91 W · 74 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6600…d5fdbacked Team Falcons | 65c | 399.99$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 63 | 69.8%44 W · 19 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed Team Falcons | 69c | 396.2$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.82 | 799 | 59.4%475 W · 324 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1943…1561backed Nigma Galaxy | 31c | 389.94$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.53 | 453 | 52.1%236 W · 217 L | +13.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb11…8f3fbacked Team Falcons | 65c | 359.07$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.67 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e02…54a1backed Nigma Galaxy | 32c | 358.54$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70d9…c941backed Nigma Galaxy | 30c | 338.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b26…21e0backed Team Falcons | 65c | 333.36$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.42 | 134 | 64.9%87 W · 47 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9827…e57cbacked Nigma Galaxy | 32c | 329.42$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.41 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x249f…fed3backed Team Falcons | 66c | 317.64$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 626 | 50.5%316 W · 310 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Team Falcons | 65c | 313.11$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.11 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…98abbacked Nigma Galaxy | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 155 | 46.5%72 W · 83 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…15edbacked Team Falcons | 65c | 310.97$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.84 | 881 | 66.7%588 W · 293 L | +76.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b5…54c4backed Nigma Galaxy | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 292 | 40.8%119 W · 173 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb8…6b51backed Team Falcons | 78c | 301.08$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.69 | 420 | 53.6%225 W · 195 L | +16.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed Nigma Galaxy | 36c | 300.03$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.91 | 721 | 54%389 W · 332 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…57bbbacked Team Falcons | 71c | 300$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 418 | 64.1%268 W · 150 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02d7…0c39backed Nigma Galaxy | 28c | 300$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 205 | 30.7%63 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…d590backed Team Falcons | 67c | 298.48$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.5 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf201…527ebacked Nigma Galaxy | 32c | 295$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.4 | 325 | 49.8%162 W · 163 L | +23.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x48ba…d81dbacked Team Falcons | 76c | 292.42$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.72 | 563 | 43.9%247 W · 316 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b5…205abacked Team Falcons | 63c | 288$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.76 | 319 | 53.9%172 W · 147 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed Team Falcons | 73c | 258.63$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.38 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 WinnerTeam Falcons won
- Game 2: Any Player Rampage?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.