NBA · resolved market
Pistons vs. Celtics: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19bb35cff60420a1318ca0c1e37174954bd1995f17065eef7d31be9504214fcc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,776
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,687
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,776 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 53c | 10,258$5,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,444.01 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7425…4cf1backed Under | 49c | 8,571$4,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,371.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 44c | 6,365$2,795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,569.58 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 52c | 4,565$2,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,386.5 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Under | 48c | 3,679$1,766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,913.27 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Over | 51c | 3,000$1,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,529.99 | 220 | 53.6%118 W · 102 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24fd…6d70backed Under | 49c | 2,863$1,403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,460.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 2c | 1,521$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…91adbacked Under | 59c | 960.49$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.11 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x478a…2deabacked Over | 57c | 500$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Over | 57c | 494$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.58 | 500 | 47.2%236 W · 264 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 27c | 492.12$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.69 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 29c | 431.09$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.74 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Over | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 249 | 55.8%139 W · 110 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6579…b0a5backed Over | 53c | 366.25$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.11 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4af…0938backed Over | 54c | 358.54$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.61 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa128…8d4bbacked Over | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…5cc8backed Over | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 111 | 55%61 W · 50 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcae6…f672backed Over | 57c | 261.4$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd39…1b8abacked Under | 49c | 236.72$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.73 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbaa…59b8backed Over | 52c | 191.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.81 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x20c2…895fbacked Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Over | 54c | 122.22$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 535 | 39.6%212 W · 323 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8a…398ebacked Over | 50c | 111.36$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.68 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Over | 52c | 109.35$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.86 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…dba8backed Over | 53c | 103.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…244cbacked Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -11.3wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…0635backed Over | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 473 | 59.2%280 W · 193 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad2…71f8backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Under | 43c | 90$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc69…78b3backed Over | 54c | 87.04$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e85…8900backed Over | 29c | 75.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 70c | 39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca8…ddddbacked Over | 52c | 36.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 278 | 46.8%130 W · 148 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Over | 30c | 34.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 52c | 28.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 415 | 56.9%236 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ac…e166backed Over | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 187 | 57.2%107 W · 80 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc32e…203dbacked Over | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3179…3d2abacked Over | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d1…4cb7backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11ff…39a4backed Over | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pistons vs. Celtics: O/U 228.5this page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-1.5)Celtics won
- Pistons vs. CelticsPistons won
- Pistons vs. Celtics: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
- Pistons vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Celtics: O/U 229.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Celtics: O/U 230.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Celtics: O/U 231.5Under won
- Spread: Celtics (-1.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Celtics (-2.5)Pistons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.