NBA · resolved market
Spread: Celtics (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0fbf16a57d434d69c5016941d91b8a49c62fd06cf3940f13321b2219443b20e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pistonsof Celtics, Pistons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,379
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,913
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,379 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff9f…7c29backed Pistons | 53c | 16,000$8,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,570 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc480…0caabacked Celtics | 47c | 12,000$5,690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,690 | 132 | 49.2%65 W · 67 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ede…6c27backed Celtics | 46c | 10,010$4,605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,604.64 | 451 | 51.4%232 W · 219 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Pistons | 47c | 4,950$2,349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,600.93 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedb1…819ebacked Pistons | 54c | 4,635$2,503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,132.19 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Celtics | 55c | 4,356$2,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,395.39 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8737…94fdbacked Pistons | 53c | 4,236$2,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,990.69 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.35per pick | 50cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6576…6cc5backed Celtics | 47c | 4,000$1,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,880 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…f62dbacked Pistons | 55c | 2,856$1,571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,285.36 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Celtics | 46c | 2,244$1,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,038.61 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…1b96backed Celtics | 47c | 1,743$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$819 | 240 | 51.3%123 W · 117 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbde3…4a49backed Celtics | 48c | 1,724$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.52 | 272 | 51.1%139 W · 133 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6395…d69dbacked Pistons | 52c | 1,134$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.34 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Celtics | 24c | 1,001$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.15 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb116…940abacked Pistons | 76c | 1,000$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…e20fbacked Pistons | 51c | 595$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.65 | 499 | 38.9%194 W · 305 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Celtics | 44c | 545.47$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.58 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Celtics | 46c | 499.98$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.99 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf193…9838backed Pistons | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 92 | 41.3%38 W · 54 L | -8.9wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Pistons | 55c | 336.6$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.84 | 563 | 48.5%273 W · 290 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170e…1a1abacked Pistons | 48c | 311.1$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.88 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb04…3ce1backed Pistons | 53c | 301.89$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.89 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…fcc4backed Pistons | 56c | 299.99$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8034…2463backed Pistons | 50c | 200.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.19 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…7993backed Pistons | 52c | 199.96$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.98 | 617 | 47.8%295 W · 322 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceaa…9ffebacked Celtics | 49c | 199$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.51 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x190c…08c0backed Pistons | 52c | 199$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.52 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Celtics | 50c | 193.23$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.23 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…0831backed Pistons | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 185 | 58.4%108 W · 77 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Celtics | 15c | 162.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 206 | 38.3%79 W · 127 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8a…b155backed Celtics | 47c | 159.57$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a28…c2e1backed Pistons | 54c | 148.43$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.43 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Pistons | 52c | 126$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.48 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…244cbacked Pistons | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -11.3wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Celtics | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Celtics | 44c | 95.45$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Pistons | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb433…f543backed Pistons | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Celtics | 46c | 91.66$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.17 | 427 | 44.5%190 W · 237 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…fe6dbacked Celtics | 49c | 91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.54 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…2332backed Pistons | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 121 | 55.4%67 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x623c…dde0backed Pistons | 54c | 74.27$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.27 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Pistons | 54c | 73.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x897d…90c9backed Pistons | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 165 | 59.4%98 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d3…a973backed Pistons | 55c | 70.91$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.91 | 102 | 61.8%63 W · 39 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Pistons | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Celtics | 46c | 55.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Pistons | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0356…5273backed Pistons | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Pistons | 53c | 52.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Pistons | 49c | 51.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.82 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Celtics | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 185 | 49.2%91 W · 94 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Celtics | 46c | 46.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…5490backed Pistons | 54c | 46.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 288 | 56.9%164 W · 124 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x260a…dbf6backed Pistons | 46c | 45.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb545…6e0abacked Pistons | 51c | 42.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 175 | 27.4%48 W · 127 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Celtics | 48c | 39.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50aa…70ddbacked Pistons | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3839…a64dbacked Pistons | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 33 | 75.8%25 W · 8 L | +7.9wins | +0.24per pick | 52cpaid | +48%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Pistons | 55c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 129 | 47.3%61 W · 68 L | +12.3wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x19a7…3ec1backed Pistons | 54c | 31.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1af…c803backed Pistons | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67bc…4d94backed Pistons | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Pistons | 54c | 24.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x168e…d2e0backed Pistons | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e6…2c11backed Pistons | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Celtics (-2.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-1.5)Celtics won
- Pistons vs. CelticsPistons won
- Pistons vs. Celtics: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
- Pistons vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Celtics: O/U 228.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Celtics: O/U 229.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Celtics: O/U 230.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Celtics: O/U 231.5Under won
- Spread: Celtics (-1.5)Pistons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.