UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Freeman vs. Bujlo (Heavyweight, Prelims)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19c7872f3deede0ad527998c16079bcfa6be78aeb2b4eba0e6c5fbf88782c897
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Freemanof Freeman, Bujlo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,280
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $99,140
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,280 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc3f…5c6fbacked Bujlo | 2c | 19,722$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.45 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdecc…9d36backed Bujlo | 50c | 6,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 169 | 51.5%87 W · 82 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf975…4354backed Freeman | 69c | 2,754$1,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$853.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c81…e258backed Freeman | 66c | 2,237$1,476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.56 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Bujlo | 34c | 2,050$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…de82backed Bujlo | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 105 | 22.9%24 W · 81 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Bujlo | 31c | 1,697$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.22 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Bujlo | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Bujlo | 30c | 851.74$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.74 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Freeman | 70c | 815.63$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 309 | 64.7%200 W · 109 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77a3…0e3fbacked Freeman | 68c | 735.47$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.47 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +6.3wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Bujlo | 32c | 730.93$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.9 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8b…b1c8backed Bujlo | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0174…f66fbacked Bujlo | 19c | 532.4$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.62 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Bujlo | 34c | 495$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.14 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…c94dbacked Freeman | 67c | 451.82$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.1 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Bujlo | 34c | 401.51$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.51 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb307…be4abacked Bujlo | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafe8…5f44backed Bujlo | 31c | 300$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Bujlo | 33c | 232.36$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.68 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…f004backed Freeman | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 209 | 54.1%113 W · 96 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Bujlo | 32c | 199.97$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.99 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Freeman | 66c | 174$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.86 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Bujlo | 35c | 170$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73a6…8924backed Freeman | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 58cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd81b…6436backed Bujlo | 34c | 132.35$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Freeman | 68c | 123.75$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…7650backed Freeman | 68c | 117.65$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.65 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9083…622ebacked Freeman | 68c | 108.82$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.82 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 62cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5960…d692backed Freeman | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdf…64c3backed Bujlo | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Bujlo | 33c | 99.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee44…0082backed Bujlo | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdd…11bebacked Bujlo | 33c | 90$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d52…834ebacked Bujlo | 32c | 83.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 92 | 28.3%26 W · 66 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2d…d491backed Freeman | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcf…7866backed Freeman | 67c | 67.28$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0abd…869abacked Bujlo | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…baa4backed Bujlo | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Bujlo | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Freeman | 66c | 49.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Freeman | 64c | 44.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 366 | 55.2%202 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c45…47f1backed Bujlo | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 190 | 65.3%124 W · 66 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd363…e6d1backed Freeman | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb783…72a8backed Freeman | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +40%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc460…0aa4backed Freeman | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe615…6819backed Freeman | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf693…202fbacked Freeman | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0650…994cbacked Freeman | 67c | 20.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80ed…ce26backed Freeman | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 241 | 61.8%149 W · 92 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e22…19cebacked Freeman | 67c | 19.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 134 | 67.9%91 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x575b…b75abacked Freeman | 67c | 19.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Freeman vs. Bujlo (Heavyweight, Prelims)this page
- Will Denzel Freeman win by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.