Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19cb4b67ce21369f5b474eb036845eed477761559c20ebdac4eba715f232202f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,222
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,222 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6c2b…36f4backed No | 78c | 2,404$1,875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.42 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed No | 43c | 1,620$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$918.36 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d8…99aebacked Yes | 25c | 1,110$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c1…c1a4backed Yes | 3c | 1,107$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.35 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…29bfbacked Yes | 58c | 899.99$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.99 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5fed…1a5cbacked Yes | 55c | 899.98$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae59…cbc7backed Yes | 17c | 784.19$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e43…5d75backed No | 41c | 666.12$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 21c | 482.27$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.6 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec3…5802backed Yes | 54c | 464.86$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.16 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab77…da8bbacked Yes | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3153…8e0fbacked No | 65c | 395$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 345.17$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.88 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 72c | 336.77$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.37 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3799…1c4abacked Yes | 61c | 329.56$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 56c | 309.8$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.8 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x610c…271ebacked Yes | 37c | 264.59$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 58c | 257.95$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 77c | 253.75$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 31c | 247.12$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.02 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe013…764fbacked Yes | 19c | 236.94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 36c | 226.82$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.41 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x406f…327dbacked Yes | 39c | 225.93$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 17c | 211$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 18c | 210.8$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.61 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 25c | 206$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.02 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cea…a932backed Yes | 29c | 200$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…66f9backed Yes | 38c | 193.86$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.52 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cda…3d8abacked Yes | 56c | 178.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f44…ace3backed No | 79c | 176.62$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.35 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +11.9wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked Yes | 13c | 172.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 23c | 170.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 30c | 156.27$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.47 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd8…c4abbacked No | 65c | 153.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9caf…e07fbacked Yes | 38c | 150$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 149.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 21c | 147.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 35c | 143.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79aa…2e5cbacked Yes | 54c | 123.03$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.48 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x495f…5b4abacked Yes | 17c | 121.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 23c | 120$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e18…d90ebacked Yes | 50c | 118.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e52…44e7backed Yes | 43c | 117.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab6…6099backed Yes | 14c | 115$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5068…1ffabacked No | 71c | 105.7$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b7…8030backed No | 71c | 105.63$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.63 | 125 | 64.8%81 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaeb…8032backed Yes | 59c | 102.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.18 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f42…f202backed Yes | 37c | 102.28$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f4…c82cbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e9…c62abacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd1…9c76backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e7…10c0backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe22a…10ebbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8776…1ca3backed Yes | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | 0%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a9…2c34backed Yes | 57c | 99.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed Yes | 19c | 99.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 36c | 96.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…5a5bbacked No | 50c | 96$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -11.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 21c | 93.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 64c | 93.1$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.86 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…c055backed Yes | 34c | 91.66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2895…2574backed No | 45c | 90$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.87 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Yes | 13c | 89.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…92f9backed Yes | 50c | 88.18$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 21c | 87.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 32c | 87.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked No | 80c | 80$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2086…a554backed No | 64c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…fd3ebacked Yes | 58c | 78.95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea4c…0e79backed No | 64c | 78.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 35c | 75.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbf98…d0bfbacked Yes | 22c | 72.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa01…b923backed Yes | 17c | 72.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 23c | 70.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…5546backed Yes | 45c | 70.21$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked No | 79c | 70.01$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9a…b259backed Yes | 58c | 69.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.59 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc998…3ce8backed Yes | 22c | 69.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 49c | 62.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 59c | 60.02$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.68 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 46c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…cdc1backed Yes | 58c | 56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 27c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…d62ebacked Yes | 33c | 53.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -63%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f5…63d2backed Yes | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb2…158ebacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 32cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6197…e239backed Yes | 34c | 49.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 51c | 49.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 33c | 49.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd65…c0b1backed No | 76c | 47.35$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3867…3a98backed Yes | 34c | 45.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…dbe8backed Yes | 55c | 45.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 48c | 44.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0185…0bd3backed Yes | 45c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C or higher on March 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.