Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0554b834b58992cf46e1fb731f91c3c3847279abfe0d9ec63c8d3491e05b2d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,178
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,178 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 76c | 1,143$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.01 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,112$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,103$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3af0…f117backed Yes | 2c | 1,075$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea00…42e8backed Yes | 15c | 999.98$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec3…5802backed Yes | 25c | 553.46$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.72 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 6c | 506.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 402.82$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.86 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 4c | 372.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab77…da8bbacked Yes | 30c | 339.97$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.99 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 318.21$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.39 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 72c | 278.45$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.26 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53b7…2f45backed Yes | 19c | 260.16$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 15c | 250$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaeb…8032backed Yes | 29c | 237.58$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 24c | 205.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x022f…e73abacked Yes | 24c | 200$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +86%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 13c | 199.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd5…e8b8backed Yes | 28c | 196.08$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 27c | 193.81$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.13 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…c055backed Yes | 11c | 142.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed No | 78c | 139.98$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2a…9ee3backed Yes | 8c | 136.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 24c | 132$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c45…f924backed Yes | 16c | 114$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79aa…2e5cbacked Yes | 31c | 110.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 75c | 110.3$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.57 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb0…7dbebacked Yes | 24c | 106.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 23cpaid | +214%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 20c | 103.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70ab…c998backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x220a…7c57backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 27c | 98.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 19c | 97.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b1…9b01backed Yes | 32c | 94.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc736…a3e6backed Yes | 16c | 91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe22a…10ebbacked Yes | 22c | 89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x900a…bb70backed Yes | 22c | 85.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4993…aa26backed Yes | 21c | 81.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x502c…7c03backed Yes | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c6…7888backed No | 66c | 75.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.41 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 69c | 75$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05a1…89f9backed No | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb523…4b8fbacked Yes | 34c | 65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 26c | 58.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe191…2720backed Yes | 28c | 51.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e52…44e7backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb2…158ebacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 32cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b6…0203backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…5a5bbacked No | 71c | 48.42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -11.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe013…764fbacked Yes | 29c | 43.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe534…9037backed No | 70c | 43.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 27c | 40.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 165 | 20.6%34 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b9…7ce7backed No | 76c | 39.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 76c | 32.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d82…89a3backed Yes | 36c | 30.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9f…b4e1backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9370…433abacked No | 75c | 29.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 80c | 28.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d81…c006backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbec4…6a90backed No | 75c | 24.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…6099backed No | 70c | 15.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C or higher on March 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.