Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95e99dd81b7f361ee215e4b2287a5a0a7a6347b78bd11064e77fe97789761379
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,894
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,894 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 1c | 4,599$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.87 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 3,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 1c | 2,599$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa2…05fbbacked No | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d8…99aebacked Yes | 68c | 1,110$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 12c | 685.3$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.65 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 67c | 676.7$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.7 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3799…1c4abacked Yes | 16c | 625.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.86 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 61c | 550.99$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.44 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 64c | 499.99$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.17 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 8c | 453.3$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 75c | 438.99$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.95 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 3c | 396.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x084c…589ebacked Yes | 19c | 306.05$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.47 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 267.1$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.77 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 19c | 262.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.07 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc30d…d4a7backed Yes | 74c | 262.07$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 258.47$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 14c | 236.66$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.94 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 30c | 210.06$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.08 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b9…cea8backed Yes | 78c | 209.92$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.76 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 72c | 204.81$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.97 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 200$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.82 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 57c | 199.99$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.45 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…92f9backed Yes | 52c | 198.76$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.79 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c6…7888backed Yes | 30c | 182.31$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.09 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…dbe8backed Yes | 69c | 163.45$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.45 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900a…bb70backed Yes | 16c | 158.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.68 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36fe…3ab1backed No | 70c | 150$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a9…2c34backed Yes | 48c | 141.93$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.1 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab77…da8bbacked Yes | 47c | 140.51$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.47 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb0…7dbebacked Yes | 10c | 137.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.3 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 23cpaid | +214%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8776…1ca3backed Yes | 40c | 136.65$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.52 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | 0%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cea…a932backed Yes | 42c | 132.37$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd03…932fbacked Yes | 18c | 123.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.09 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 17c | 120.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.66 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e7…10c0backed Yes | 20c | 120.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.99 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2b…c3b4backed Yes | 21c | 116.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.78 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 20c | 114.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…1f7cbacked Yes | 61c | 104.97$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…c055backed Yes | 37c | 102.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.98 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 69c | 100.96$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40e4…8171backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed Yes | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.05 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab6…6099backed Yes | 12c | 99.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.86 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa1…bd4ebacked Yes | 11c | 90.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.91 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 65c | 89.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.12 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 14c | 85.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.96 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f5…87adbacked Yes | 77c | 83.07$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…52f0backed Yes | 50c | 81.89$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.11 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d97…66f8backed Yes | 66c | 77.5$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.61 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x406f…327dbacked Yes | 55c | 73.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.07 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f42…f202backed Yes | 51c | 71.49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.17 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 61c | 71$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.92 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 18c | 69.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.12 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 30c | 69.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.36 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf98…d0bfbacked Yes | 73c | 68.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 26c | 64.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 41c | 62.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.54 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d81…c006backed No | 33c | 61.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 31c | 59.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299a…9e6fbacked No | 27c | 55.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 61c | 55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8095…d7abbacked No | 36c | 54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…8977backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa17e…cfcdbacked Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 43c | 49.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 72c | 48.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…17b5backed Yes | 32c | 46.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5068…1ffabacked Yes | 71c | 43.72$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ad…b6d7backed No | 33c | 37.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x610c…271ebacked Yes | 52c | 31.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7f…7bfbbacked Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 69c | 26.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 54c | 25.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed1…23ecbacked Yes | 69c | 23.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3af0…f117backed Yes | 52c | 21.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6197…e239backed Yes | 60c | 18.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C or higher on March 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.