NBA · resolved market
Knicks vs. Heat
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a05a4cbf6bdeff4202f142f12773cba17962deea1ed9c7ee8d4ba28e7638bc9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Knicksof Knicks, Heat
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,073
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,125
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,073 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Knicks | 63c | 13,561$8,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,042.99 | 476 | 56.5%269 W · 207 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked Heat | 45c | 9,020$4,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,056.01 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Heat | 24c | 2,335$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 531 | 34.7%184 W · 347 L | -11.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Heat | 47c | 2,201$1,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,034.49 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x738d…4df6backed Heat | 13c | 1,650$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.5 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…1cc5backed Heat | 48c | 1,500$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.97 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…446cbacked Knicks | 53c | 1,500$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Knicks | 64c | 1,142$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.28 | 656 | 42.5%279 W · 377 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Heat | 46c | 1,001$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.44 | 1,290 | 44%567 W · 723 L | +35.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab8a…681abacked Knicks | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5c…be69backed Knicks | 50c | 721.4$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.7 | 279 | 39.8%111 W · 168 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x905f…ad6bbacked Knicks | 67c | 691.48$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.96 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…4e95backed Knicks | 53c | 607.52$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.74 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd1…7918backed Knicks | 53c | 601.41$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.79 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6b…1a3ebacked Heat | 47c | 600$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Heat | 5c | 586.82$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 1,035 | 1.1%11 W · 1,024 L | -24.4wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -90.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed Heat | 47c | 522.77$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.7 | 138 | 57.2%79 W · 59 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x442b…5410backed Knicks | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Knicks | 52c | 443.99$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.11 | 228 | 32%73 W · 155 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…4bccbacked Knicks | 53c | 429.09$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.67 | 296 | 35.8%106 W · 190 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b9…f457backed Heat | 48c | 350$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…f24cbacked Knicks | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.27 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf9…c9bcbacked Knicks | 53c | 255$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…2772backed Heat | 50c | 250.14$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2422…d02cbacked Knicks | 52c | 250$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.84 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9857…be38backed Heat | 21c | 240.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…e0cbbacked Heat | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 270 | 41.5%112 W · 158 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Knicks | 51c | 199.94$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.97 | 1,166 | 54.4%634 W · 532 L | +19.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafe0…ff4abacked Knicks | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +53%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9a…6250backed Heat | 48c | 175$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Knicks | 57c | 170.84$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.49 | 615 | 32.2%198 W · 417 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…517cbacked Heat | 23c | 153.39$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 101 | 31.7%32 W · 69 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6315…10edbacked Knicks | 40c | 150.16$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb228…2734backed Heat | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.84 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda67…b950backed Knicks | 44c | 150$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.5 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x576b…7336backed Heat | 48c | 125$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 183 | 16.9%31 W · 152 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5f…7a25backed Heat | 26c | 108.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…f8efbacked Knicks | 52c | 105$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +190.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Knicks | 50c | 103.51$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e2…0187backed Knicks | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 293 | 55.3%162 W · 131 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e5…293bbacked Heat | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33cc…a0b6backed Heat | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 184 | 37.5%69 W · 115 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8369…3c94backed Heat | 37c | 94.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5c…2d34backed Heat | 49c | 86.93$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a58…aca8backed Heat | 19c | 83.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebe1…7a5bbacked Knicks | 56c | 78.57$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.57 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d3…7a61backed Knicks | 75c | 73.2$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d8a…944fbacked Knicks | 52c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 54cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Heat | 46c | 69.36$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fdd…0b07backed Heat | 49c | 68.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 103 | 34%35 W · 68 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0360…7be1backed Knicks | 43c | 67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.04 | 119 | 52.9%63 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc12…1e02backed Knicks | 80c | 66.15$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d53…a88abacked Knicks | 53c | 62.79$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.51 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24cb…f959backed Knicks | 51c | 62.78$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.71 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3710…9ca7backed Heat | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcab1…b2b1backed Knicks | 55c | 54.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.17per pick | 65cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6be…88d8backed Knicks | 53c | 52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22d4…1b9dbacked Heat | 47c | 52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4442…d5c1backed Heat | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57c8…91eabacked Knicks | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x256a…1c70backed Knicks | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x484c…017ebacked Knicks | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Heat | 44c | 37.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 117 | 19.7%23 W · 94 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50d2…0d35backed Knicks | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e5…316dbacked Knicks | 53c | 33.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…f3edbacked Knicks | 54c | 33.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb6c…b425backed Knicks | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb9…0e56backed Heat | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85ab…8b3cbacked Heat | 56c | 28.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +36%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39da…7b3dbacked Heat | 61c | 27.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Heat | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 275 | 48.7%134 W · 141 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1872…1962backed Heat | 49c | 22.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5138…1d4dbacked Knicks | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37b9…3390backed Knicks | 47c | 21.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 202 | 33.7%68 W · 134 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f96…7a8abacked Knicks | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.25per pick | 63cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x437e…baa9backed Knicks | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b16…9bc6backed Knicks | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x778a…1a6dbacked Heat | 69c | 15.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.