Dota2 · resolved market
1win to win 2-0?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a4229b739f12ee9ecb39d3b060ed3dda4faf15d4aa6829890b1cc998c5ead13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,279
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,895
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,279 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Yes | 30c | 3,941$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,741.34 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed No | 70c | 2,091$1,463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,463.31 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked No | 69c | 2,036$1,398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,397.63 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94cb…64e3backed No | 72c | 1,560$1,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,121.27 | 188 | 30.9%58 W · 130 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked No | 69c | 1,067$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.67 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 8%4 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa5…05bbbacked Yes | 28c | 696.5$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.48 | 133 | 59.4%79 W · 54 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 30c | 654.54$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.71 | 237 | 36.7%87 W · 150 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 32c | 521$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.69 | 557 | 51.7%288 W · 269 L | +16.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed No | 75c | 500$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Yes | 62c | 487.47$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.79 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…4289backed Yes | 30c | 385.68$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.67 | 303 | 57.1%173 W · 130 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa618…20bbbacked Yes | 28c | 278.29$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.37 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Yes | 32c | 203.13$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.13 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 65c | 154.4$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 140$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.2 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976f…8a71backed No | 76c | 129.63$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.52 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe66e…946bbacked Yes | 44c | 113$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.59 | 210 | 43.8%92 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e0…6ec6backed Yes | 28c | 102.14$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.54 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x115d…1691backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 142 | 44.4%63 W · 79 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15bc…4a7ebacked No | 70c | 98.47$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.93 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f4…ee16backed Yes | 60c | 91$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.58 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x260a…eb0fbacked Yes | 30c | 87.87$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.24 | 153 | 68%104 W · 49 L | +17.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…e3a8backed Yes | 30c | 78.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.42 | 252 | 66.3%167 W · 85 L | +20.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7886…ec60backed Yes | 68c | 76.34$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3296…c186backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a2…a9bfbacked Yes | 29c | 69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 194 | 55.7%108 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf58a…c85bbacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +69%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 33c | 61.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 793 | 41.7%331 W · 462 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Yes | 31c | 58.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.06 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c36…e462backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 56c | 49.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked No | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba06…8024backed No | 40c | 45.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 36c | 40.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Yes | 29c | 39.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 669 | 47.1%315 W · 354 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…3e2dbacked Yes | 60c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc2…ed58backed No | 74c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1win to win 2-0?this page
- LGD Gaming to win 2-0?No won
- LGD Gaming vs 1win: Draw (1-1)?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.