Mls · resolved market
Will Toronto FC win on 2026-05-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a4ab884344b25e6171e9b9c74b2278b5c82ce44617d6161258d4ba72b4c9a87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,762
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,368
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,762 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 20c | 3,560$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.33 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f21…3d6ebacked Yes | 15c | 2,646$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.09 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked Yes | 21c | 2,487$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534 | 166 | 57.2%95 W · 71 L | +12.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 76c | 1,841$1,406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.82 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 80c | 1,568$1,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.75 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 77c | 1,351$1,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.98 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Yes | 17c | 683.02$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.16 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -8.9wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed No | 80c | 594$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.8 | 238 | 58%138 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 21c | 579.9$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.6 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 80c | 499.99$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 20c | 499.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 12c | 496.9$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.79 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7841…7273backed Yes | 21c | 400$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 79c | 385.23$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.57 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked No | 77c | 316.45$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 189 | 67.2%127 W · 62 L | +21.1wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 18c | 299.94$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.75 | 70 | 31.4%22 W · 48 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9212…4040backed No | 55c | 257$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.74 | 139 | 52.5%73 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 79c | 224.08$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 15c | 184$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 79c | 149.99$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Yes | 12c | 132.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4204…165abacked Yes | 22c | 127$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked Yes | 15c | 126.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 106 | 44.3%47 W · 59 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 10c | 103$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 23c | 87.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 249 | 20.9%52 W · 197 L | -19.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Yes | 46c | 84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 73 | 64.4%47 W · 26 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 19c | 80.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 80c | 73$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 186 | 55.4%103 W · 83 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe129…fef1backed Yes | 20c | 64.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 80c | 50.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked No | 80c | 41.39$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 107 | 55.1%59 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0dc…ffadbacked No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 115 | 63.5%73 W · 42 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed No | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 187 | 74.3%139 W · 48 L | +33.5wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 79c | 21.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked No | 80c | 16.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.32 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked No | 80c | 15.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 106 | 55.7%59 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed No | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 93 | 57%53 W · 40 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed No | 80c | 13.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 74 | 56.8%42 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Toronto FC win on 2026-05-16?this page
- Will Charlotte FC vs. Toronto FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Charlotte FC win on 2026-05-16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.