Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a7a435e9d545d55a75b717c8845d2d6c44766eb41c1c888b51086f8d1cad216
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,883
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,419
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,883 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 3,149$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.96 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22ea…e40dbacked Yes | 29c | 527.77$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.26 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1535…d77bbacked Yes | 43c | 427.02$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.92 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 7c | 299.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.89 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5be3…27a5backed Yes | 11c | 172.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a9…4bdfbacked Yes | 22c | 156.35$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 62c | 146.51$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.77 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…e428backed Yes | 10c | 140$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 99 | 31.3%31 W · 68 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 29c | 121.23$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 36c | 119.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 11c | 112.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 71c | 112.48$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 17c | 105.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 104.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 63c | 99.92$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 94.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.07 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked Yes | 45c | 92.13$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe16a…dd6dbacked No | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 80.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 56c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 24c | 68.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 58c | 67$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 61c | 66.84$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe4…4841backed No | 63c | 59.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 31c | 54.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 24c | 50.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…b97abacked Yes | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 175 | 36.6%64 W · 111 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 33c | 49.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 47.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 55c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 65c | 44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 66c | 42.92$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe168…f375backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked No | 65c | 36.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 64c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 64c | 32.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 64c | 31.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 66c | 30.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 63c | 29.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 60c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f1…c062backed No | 66c | 28.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed8…cad8backed No | 57c | 28.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc47e…0fc4backed No | 68c | 26.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 67c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 66c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed No | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 64c | 23.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7603…2276backed No | 64c | 22.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 146 | 74.7%109 W · 37 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 69c | 22.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 64c | 22.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…72c0backed No | 65c | 20.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -10.8wins | -0.14per pick | 63cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 56c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 68c | 17.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.