Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x634f9d9b105fd3645ead7db6c2d9e509fc0125698559fbc2c6878c991bcd60ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,296
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,983
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,296 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 4c | 2,832$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.77 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 49c | 486.58$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.59 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 79c | 446.97$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.5 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 75c | 333.06$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.93 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 282$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.96 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22ea…e40dbacked Yes | 45c | 278$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.22 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 15c | 254.9$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 21c | 245.7$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.69 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 70c | 210.58$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.32 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 17c | 197.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 23c | 186.92$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.82 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 77c | 165.13$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.38 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14da…0af1backed Yes | 30c | 145.76$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.82 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 60c | 143.55$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.89 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8774…d1f1backed Yes | 14c | 138.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 11c | 123.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 27c | 120.29$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 13c | 101.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f13…edcfbacked No | 62c | 101.02$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.15 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +4.5wins | +0.28per pick | 59cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1c…545abacked No | 54c | 100.94$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.71 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4563…e698backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f0…e338backed Yes | 16c | 90.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…e428backed Yes | 13c | 80.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 99 | 31.3%31 W · 68 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 66c | 63.1$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 61c | 60.38$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.74 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked Yes | 47c | 59.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 59.41$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 26c | 59.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 51c | 58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 72c | 55.41$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked No | 73c | 55.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x124a…b245backed Yes | 50c | 54.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 65c | 52.16$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6980…5478backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked Yes | 34c | 49.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 49c | 47.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 69c | 43.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…d88dbacked Yes | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9953…9ef2backed Yes | 37c | 40.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53b7…2f45backed No | 44c | 40.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 39.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x053b…d0fabacked Yes | 39c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 54c | 32.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 37c | 31.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 78c | 30.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 29.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 64c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e3…c890backed No | 52c | 26.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 76c | 24.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 49c | 23.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 67c | 23.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed Yes | 47c | 22.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b09…68babacked Yes | 65c | 21.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf120…19c6backed Yes | 66c | 19.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 60c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.