TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$28,371
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$32,953

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,371 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe907…cff6backed No75c1,897$1,414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,414.193,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1941…deeabacked Yes75c751.9$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.121,07236.6%392 W · 680 L+25.9wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed Yes13c593.09$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.981,40127.3%383 W · 1,018 L+69.5wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes33c483.63$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.275,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a7c…d7b8backed No60c478.36$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.7522550.7%114 W · 111 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0af2…ce86backed Yes72c447.02$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.854763.8%30 W · 17 L+6.5wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+26.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd661…2750backed Yes28c444.19$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.8888028.9%254 W · 626 L-2.9wins0.00per pick29cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1535…d77bbacked Yes35c425.74$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.257143.7%31 W · 40 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No41c407.42$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.4176755.4%425 W · 342 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd65a…6599backed No4c300$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1947.4%7 W · 87 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-26.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes35c287.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.8917140.4%69 W · 102 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No21c250.52$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.833,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe52c…016abacked Yes21c245.74$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.1816631.9%53 W · 113 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No64c242.39$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.173,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked No29c238.22$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.0474926.7%200 W · 549 L-20.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f44…ace3backed Yes54c220.52$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.526660.6%40 W · 26 L+11.9wins+0.18per pick43cpaid+52.7%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xc109…450bbacked Yes55c220.5$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.234035%14 W · 26 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6719…a34dbacked Yes20c216.92$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.929129.7%27 W · 64 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+19.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3910…ba74backed Yes50c216.26$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.2617231.4%54 W · 118 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d09…143fbacked No65c169.76$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.4228829.5%85 W · 203 L+32.9wins+0.11per pick18cpaid+101.6%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked Yes62c162.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.4472952.4%382 W · 347 L+34.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5ec9…ec5ebacked No67c150$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x658b…84bfbacked Yes21c149.99$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.9920445.1%92 W · 112 L+14.8wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+6.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes15c149.01$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.3412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16ca…1ec7backed Yes57c143.18$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.081656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3507…71d7backed No72c139.53$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10033373%243 W · 90 L+1.1wins0.00per pick73cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes8c130$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.61,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No46c120.07$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.747,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xf143…b143backed Yes76c118.75$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.7211069.1%76 W · 34 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No51c113.99$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.672,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes34c112.99$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.9810834.3%37 W · 71 L-0.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No44c102.85$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.781,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcfe4…4841backed No66c100$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663138.7%12 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-28.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes14c100$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.5896620.7%200 W · 766 L+59.8wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+96.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd12…7f29backed Yes39c100$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.815437.7%58 W · 96 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe03c…c61bbacked Yes29c96.75$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.973647.2%17 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No72c96$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.44,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No34c93.56$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.834,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d1f…e428backed Yes22c92.18$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.199931.3%31 W · 68 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x652d…46b3backed No33c86.66$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.861820.7%128 W · 490 L+36.9wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd372…04bebacked Yes64c84.65$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.7712052.5%63 W · 57 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes22c77.29$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.385330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7047…31b3backed Yes14c74$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.551723.5%4 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes46c71.7$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.9723540.9%96 W · 139 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked No65c70$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.578663.6%500 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes42c62.99$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.8391444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0957…77e8backed No36c62.61$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5310757.9%62 W · 45 L-0.4wins0.00per pick58cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No36c60$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.62751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+32.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No64c60$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.44,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c2…d53dbacked No60c59.39$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3513755.5%76 W · 61 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4de1…f822backed Yes23c56.59$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.7519430.4%59 W · 135 L+0.6wins0.00per pick30cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No61c55.11$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7398160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5754…cefbbacked Yes74c51.85$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.341050%5 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6780…41ccbacked Yes34c51.1$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.4827051.1%138 W · 132 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-6.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xad58…7624backed Yes28c50.93$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.8954232.3%175 W · 367 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e4f…b7d3backed Yes30c50.13$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.133141.9%13 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6980…5478backed No64c50$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32650%3 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-34.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.52,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes30c48.8$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4818…e5debacked No43c47.83$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6831219.9%62 W · 250 L-40.4wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-59.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xd8e6…819fbacked Yes63c47.49$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.74366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No57c45.16$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No34c43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.641,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdd33…5452backed Yes32c41.02$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.8111140.5%45 W · 66 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No71c40.37$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.662,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes33c40.06$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.773,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No41c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.41,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe168…f375backed Yes32c39.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.194731.9%15 W · 32 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No69c38.36$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.652,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ea1…d176backed No59c35.48$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7620353.7%109 W · 94 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x05ee…93abbacked No73c34.25$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258872.7%64 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick74cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4701…ca83backed No49c34$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6616456.7%93 W · 71 L-9.6wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-9.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb3eb…b529backed Yes43c32.77$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.761629.4%181 W · 435 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc8d…0939backed Yes40c32.62$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.625226.9%14 W · 38 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-37%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No68c31.15$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1857264.5%369 W · 203 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2ed…9d98backed No65c30.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2082268.7%565 W · 257 L+72.3wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x2cff…468bbacked No66c30.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9816263%102 W · 60 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bd0…046fbacked No34c30$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.225335.2%89 W · 164 L-0.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No56c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.761,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes41c29.57$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.581,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No68c28.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.724,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2ae…e54bbacked No70c28.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+36.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes44c28.45$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.0543559.8%260 W · 175 L+20.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb00…5461backed Yes48c28.27$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7519648.5%95 W · 101 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5848…1e49backed No63c27.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6486362.9%543 W · 320 L-1.7wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a8f…2dcfbacked Yes46c26.39$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+115.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7d7…1a16backed Yes58c26.29$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.043759.5%22 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No57c22.78$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.982,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked No54c22.12$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.941,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd43e…3604backed No71c22$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6251553.6%276 W · 239 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1632…ad5abacked No55c21.81$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9950261%306 W · 196 L-17.9wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No73c20.51$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.971,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeaa4…5c82backed No66c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.27263.9%46 W · 26 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b72…a958backed No72c19.89$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2568645.8%314 W · 372 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No71c18.96$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.462,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed No73c18$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1442160.6%255 W · 166 L-25.0wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xce05…ff90backed No60c17$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.224053.3%128 W · 112 L-9.5wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x53bc…be7cbacked No72c16.22$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6862770.5%442 W · 185 L-0.2wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf88b…0ed2backed Yes67c15.71$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.112365.2%15 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.