Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8543d1188489d750842fc1775c39b2a6143dd5305d1a8f140b63531062c25cff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,371
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,953
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,371 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 75c | 1,897$1,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,414.19 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 75c | 751.9$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.12 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 13c | 593.09$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.98 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 33c | 483.63$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.27 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 60c | 478.36$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.75 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0af2…ce86backed Yes | 72c | 447.02$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.85 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 28c | 444.19$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.88 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1535…d77bbacked Yes | 35c | 425.74$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.25 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 41c | 407.42$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.41 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd65a…6599backed No | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 94 | 7.4%7 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 35c | 287.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.89 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 21c | 250.52$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.83 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 21c | 245.74$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.18 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 64c | 242.39$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.17 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 29c | 238.22$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.04 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f44…ace3backed Yes | 54c | 220.52$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.52 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +11.9wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc109…450bbacked Yes | 55c | 220.5$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.23 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 20c | 216.92$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.92 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 50c | 216.26$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.26 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked No | 65c | 169.76$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.42 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 62c | 162.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.44 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec9…ec5ebacked No | 67c | 150$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 21c | 149.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.99 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 15c | 149.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.34 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16ca…1ec7backed Yes | 57c | 143.18$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.08 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 72c | 139.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 8c | 130$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.6 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 46c | 120.07$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.74 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…b143backed Yes | 76c | 118.75$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 51c | 113.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.67 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 34c | 112.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.98 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 44c | 102.85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.78 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe4…4841backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.58 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe03c…c61bbacked Yes | 29c | 96.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.97 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 96$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 34c | 93.56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…e428backed Yes | 22c | 92.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.19 | 99 | 31.3%31 W · 68 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 33c | 86.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked Yes | 64c | 84.65$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 22c | 77.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.3 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7047…31b3backed Yes | 14c | 74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.55 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 46c | 71.7$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.97 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 65c | 70$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 42c | 62.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.83 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 36c | 62.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 64c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 60c | 59.39$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 23c | 56.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.75 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 61c | 55.11$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.73 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…cefbbacked Yes | 74c | 51.85$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 34c | 51.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 28c | 50.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.89 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…b7d3backed Yes | 30c | 50.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.13 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6980…5478backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 48.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 43c | 47.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e6…819fbacked Yes | 63c | 47.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 45.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 34c | 43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 32c | 41.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.81 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 71c | 40.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 33c | 40.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.77 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe168…f375backed Yes | 32c | 39.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 69c | 38.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 59c | 35.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…93abbacked No | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 49c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 43c | 32.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…0939backed Yes | 40c | 32.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -37%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 68c | 31.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked No | 66c | 30.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 41c | 29.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…e54bbacked No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 44c | 28.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 48c | 28.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 27.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8f…2dcfbacked Yes | 46c | 26.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +115.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d7…1a16backed Yes | 58c | 26.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 57c | 22.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 54c | 22.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 71c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 55c | 21.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 73c | 20.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa4…5c82backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 72c | 19.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 71c | 18.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 73c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 60c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 72c | 16.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf88b…0ed2backed Yes | 67c | 15.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.