TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,242
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,241

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,242 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7760…21f0backed Yes45c1,265$575 inWon+$690.092,36947.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L-11.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed No55c654.92$357 inLost-$357.113,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed No55c225.17$123 inLost-$122.948,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa96b…7d92backed No57c174.31$100 inLost-$10019041.1%78 W · 112 L-10.2wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ffd…3ef3backed No59c134.34$79 inLost-$798558.8%50 W · 35 L+8.2wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Yes41c74.58$31 inWon+$446,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c78…c49fbacked Yes43c49.47$21 inWon+$28.22250%11 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ef…2864backed Yes42c44.28$19 inWon+$25.7120845.2%94 W · 114 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed No55c44.14$24 inLost-$24.281,05347.3%498 W · 555 L-14.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6987…846bbacked No57c36.84$21 inLost-$215653.6%30 W · 26 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No54c36$19 inLost-$19.445,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4bd…f540backed No59c35.29$21 inLost-$20.8213250.8%67 W · 65 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed No57c32.38$18 inLost-$18.4625248.8%123 W · 129 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18b6…babfbacked No58c31.9$18 inLost-$18.531449.4%155 W · 159 L-9.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96d5…b640backed No58c25.41$15 inLost-$14.741154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.