MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x531b5f69cb7e31ef5c469baf417909ad1504b32963bc5fd9889bd60f402a530a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,076
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,564
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,076 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 66c | 5,571$3,695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,876.02 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf499…b5d9backed Over | 36c | 5,563$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,562.88 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 18c | 3,922$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.57 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189c…c9aebacked Over | 63c | 3,350$2,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,228.33 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 34c | 3,231$1,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,103.47 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4848…71b9backed Under | 7c | 2,571$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccc9…3432backed Under | 7c | 2,571$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 34c | 1,873$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,235.88 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 17c | 1,769$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.76 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 66c | 1,500$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 35c | 1,074$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.34 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 58c | 1,005$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.99 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 34c | 965$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.9 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 34c | 937.49$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.74 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8df…a2c7backed Under | 6c | 747.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Under | 62c | 657.63$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.15 | 326 | 52.5%171 W · 155 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Over | 47c | 499.99$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.99 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 27c | 437.14$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.03 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 38c | 398.99$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.61 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 36c | 398.67$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.55 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc44e…284abacked Under | 11c | 298.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 9c | 298.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 18c | 297.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.64 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 18c | 297.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.64 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64e9…9324backed Over | 64c | 231.98$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.73 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 34c | 225.55$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.98 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Under | 62c | 214.07$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.72 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 19c | 184.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.21 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed Under | 19c | 162.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Over | 34c | 152.96$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.95 | 173 | 46.2%80 W · 93 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 65c | 121.56$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.27 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Under | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 541 | 46.8%253 W · 288 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked Under | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 252 | 60.3%152 W · 100 L | +16.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d3…5639backed Over | 34c | 86.44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.05 | 206 | 54.4%112 W · 94 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f46…a7e1backed Under | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -60%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb4…4551backed Over | 34c | 67.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.47 | 211 | 52.6%111 W · 100 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 64c | 65$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 64c | 64.69$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 35c | 53.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Over | 78c | 50.03$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…fc56backed Under | 67c | 50.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Under | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 76c | 40.35$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20e0…3a5fbacked Under | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71fd…46c4backed Over | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x093a…e580backed Under | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe707…e0cfbacked Under | 67c | 29.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 66c | 16.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 73c | 16.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Over | 77c | 14.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 13.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.