MLB · resolved market
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82424e0064334ac10f81e624330f0240bf6720167e8f9609ca377b824b1ca3e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof Pittsburgh Pirates, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,919
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,157
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,919 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 6,931$4,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,841.84 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 41c | 5,544$2,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,264.13 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 45c | 2,393$1,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,313.94 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 2,000$1,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$931.22 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 44c | 1,736$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.87 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6693…8374backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 1,677$1,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,076 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf844…ee3cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 1,028$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.94 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 42c | 711.38$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.78 | 265 | 45.7%121 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 703.04$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.72 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 39c | 689$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.73 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af1…1901backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 500$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 41c | 297.07$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.93 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 256.61$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.78 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 216.66$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.66 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 208$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.19 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 203.46$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.57 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 195.96$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.26 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 186.06$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.75 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 41c | 168.28$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.46 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7498…8b4dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 252 | 60.3%152 W · 100 L | +16.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 97.54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 42c | 90.47$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 82.71$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.67 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 61.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Cincinnati Reds | 34c | 61.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.15 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Cincinnati Reds | 34c | 61.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.11 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 41c | 61.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…a242backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 41c | 52.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Cincinnati Reds | 36c | 49.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.7 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 52c | 40.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 34.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa541…5128backed Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed Cincinnati Reds | 39c | 31.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 29.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 27.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 41c | 26.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 244 | 44.7%109 W · 135 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58ac…7636backed Cincinnati Reds | 52c | 25.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 49c | 21.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7144…16a8backed Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 21.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 20.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 13.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.