MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x874f9f58bcf19a15d3575fbc33b7031ccf75bac1411b90784760461d64e8245a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,274
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,066
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,274 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 56c | 3,000$1,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,679.99 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 44c | 1,523$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.6 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 17c | 827.12$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.68 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec9…1e0cbacked Over | 44c | 772.73$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 44c | 617$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.52 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 14c | 533.41$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.68 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Over | 43c | 475.34$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.84 | 208 | 45.2%94 W · 114 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Under | 57c | 387.03$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.35 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 14c | 254.64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Over | 43c | 247.04$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.82 | 237 | 58.6%139 W · 98 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Under | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 43c | 114$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.98 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 77c | 81.24$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Under | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 56c | 37.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfd3…8920backed Over | 44c | 33.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed Over | 44c | 33.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 56c | 25.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Over | 59c | 22.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 314 | 49.4%155 W · 159 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 70c | 14.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 13.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.