MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6148b750556b4feba97922281a696d274fe65377d7ce114500e1391068b2a8ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $106,228
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $106,762
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,228 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 53c | 70,000$37,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,899.99 | 1,436 | 49.3%708 W · 728 L | -6.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 47c | 46,646$21,924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,923.75 | 11,054 | 51.5%5,694 W · 5,360 L | +137.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 47c | 12,170$5,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,719.74 | 11,606 | 52.8%6,131 W · 5,475 L | +210.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 47c | 8,944$4,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,203.57 | 4,524 | 48.9%2,214 W · 2,310 L | -42.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 53c | 5,000$2,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,350.01 | 1,083 | 48.1%521 W · 562 L | -12.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Under | 47c | 5,000$2,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,350 | 506 | 52.6%266 W · 240 L | +16.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 47c | 4,039$1,898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,898.33 | 928 | 54%501 W · 427 L | +22.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Over | 52c | 1,627$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$787.25 | 241 | 58.9%142 W · 99 L | +17.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1c…82c6backed Over | 52c | 1,243$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.72 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 53c | 1,067$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.49 | 686 | 52.9%363 W · 323 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 53c | 1,067$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.07 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 1,438 | 51%734 W · 704 L | -18.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee0…d6a6backed Over | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 125 | 64%80 W · 45 L | +14.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 48c | 858.39$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.03 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 48c | 678$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.7 | 7,046 | 50.5%3,560 W · 3,486 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 52c | 640.21$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.3 | 2,314 | 52.5%1,216 W · 1,098 L | +26.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Under | 48c | 625$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 46c | 621.24$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.77 | 3,541 | 51%1,805 W · 1,736 L | +53.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 53c | 616.01$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.52 | 1,671 | 49.1%820 W · 851 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 54c | 598.63$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.68 | 3,107 | 48.1%1,495 W · 1,612 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Under | 48c | 520.85$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.01 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 1,849 | 50.7%937 W · 912 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb68…4ef3backed Under | 49c | 475.18$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.84 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 51c | 464.88$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.18 | 8,451 | 47.9%4,048 W · 4,403 L | +81.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5e…2ea3backed Under | 8c | 420.75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 1,205 | 49%591 W · 614 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 47c | 350$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.5 | 1,157 | 49.2%569 W · 588 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c91…b4d2backed Under | 48c | 304.52$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.17 | 127 | 52.8%67 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 1,224 | 54%661 W · 563 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 47c | 250$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 5,517 | 50.6%2,791 W · 2,726 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 47c | 248$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.56 | 1,543 | 48.6%750 W · 793 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 48c | 243$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.64 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Under | 48c | 208.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 52c | 190.93$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.2 | 1,960 | 41.4%812 W · 1,148 L | -25.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffb…df76backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Under | 48c | 156.25$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 48c | 144$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.12 | 1,889 | 52.9%1,000 W · 889 L | +15.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 47c | 143$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.21 | 2,349 | 49.9%1,172 W · 1,177 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 52c | 140$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 789 | 50.1%395 W · 394 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Under | 47c | 134$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.98 | 460 | 45.7%210 W · 250 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ec…f645backed Under | 46c | 128$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.88 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -4.6wins | -0.27per pick | 45cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Under | 48c | 125$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 52c | 110.38$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.04 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25a4…69f6backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3992…349cbacked Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 167 | 44.9%75 W · 92 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2f…d490backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +110%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…5a9ebacked Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 352 | 54.5%192 W · 160 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 48c | 84.92$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.76 | 1,221 | 50%610 W · 611 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 47c | 82.91$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.38 | 3,018 | 48%1,448 W · 1,570 L | +14.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb3…b370backed Under | 49c | 71.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.08 | 197 | 56.3%111 W · 86 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 47c | 70.38$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 1,911 | 44.4%848 W · 1,063 L | -29.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked Under | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 233 | 57.5%134 W · 99 L | +22.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Over | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Over | 54c | 59.26$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 222 | 48.6%108 W · 114 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 21c | 57.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 1,822 | 49.2%897 W · 925 L | -25.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Over | 53c | 53.34$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…9070backed Under | 47c | 47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 272 | 52.9%144 W · 128 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20e0…3a5fbacked Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcb…65fcbacked Over | 52c | 40.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31ff…7b20backed Over | 54c | 36.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 48c | 34.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 902 | 48.4%437 W · 465 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Over | 53c | 33.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 576 | 58.3%336 W · 240 L | +27.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…c664backed Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 309 | 28.5%88 W · 221 L | -46.7wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0a…b267backed Under | 47c | 29.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 122 | 54.9%67 W · 55 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 48c | 29.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 1,292 | 56.8%734 W · 558 L | +31.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc5…7ac4backed Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbf…7ce5backed Under | 47c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 123 | 40.7%50 W · 73 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25ae…76c6backed Over | 54c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 13.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.