MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95e8549e7ba679e37f3abf5dfe10fd315467b092d2903ee3b66a0f2541b46314
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pittsburgh Piratesof Cincinnati Reds, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,268
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,094
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,268 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 8c | 13,364$1,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,048.31 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cincinnati Reds | 30c | 1,433$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.74 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cincinnati Reds | 28c | 1,122$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.49 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44e…284abacked Cincinnati Reds | 4c | 750$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 53c | 658.77$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.82 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 53c | 550.56$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.44 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 77c | 438.04$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.65 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 53c | 399.45$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.3 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 71c | 230.98$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.98 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cincinnati Reds | 22c | 200$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 70c | 189.53$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.86 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x292b…697dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 66c | 181.82$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.82 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 68c | 144.41$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.21 | 232 | 40.9%95 W · 137 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 30c | 114.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 74c | 105.17$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Cincinnati Reds | 17c | 99.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Cincinnati Reds | 30c | 90.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 233 | 57.5%134 W · 99 L | +22.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 40c | 59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Cincinnati Reds | 34c | 53.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 66c | 53.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 56c | 53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Cincinnati Reds | 30c | 47.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1024…9651backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 335 | 56.1%188 W · 147 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 17.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 13.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.