Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1af2063351d70121549a56eefde0c3a217b71db0373770adc94c2e01b356914a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,457
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,129
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,457 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 48c | 1,519$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.87 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 51c | 664.55$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.17 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 51c | 505.71$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.04 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 23c | 352$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.36 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 52c | 293$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.64 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 55c | 271$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.05 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 56c | 266.01$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 36c | 255.05$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.05 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 49c | 214$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.14 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…3a8bbacked Yes | 48c | 200$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.8 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 53c | 198.41$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.62 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 54c | 185.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…8834backed Yes | 64c | 157.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 46c | 150.89$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.32 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 39c | 149.19$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.64 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 45c | 146.79$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.14 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…6ed2backed Yes | 8c | 130$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4653…fc2bbacked Yes | 76c | 123.09$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.86 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 49c | 120.52$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.05 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ae…b8a8backed No | 45c | 111.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.16 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 45c | 108.98$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.48 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 46c | 104.17$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.57 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 38c | 101.56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.88 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 52c | 98.41$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.77 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 61c | 97.87$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 50c | 95.76$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.25 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 42c | 89.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 51c | 88.41$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.76 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 74c | 82.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 51c | 69.41$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.31 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 43c | 69.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 30c | 67.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.23 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 52c | 65.18$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.26 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 17c | 61.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 52c | 60.59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 54c | 59.18$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 57c | 57.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 61c | 56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a39…44b7backed No | 51c | 52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 51c | 47.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 54c | 46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 54c | 45.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 51c | 44.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 24c | 42.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 51c | 41.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 51c | 41.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 50c | 41.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 50c | 41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 50c | 39.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 38c | 39.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 51c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 55c | 38.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 57c | 34.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8502…89b6backed No | 50c | 34.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 41c | 33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 57c | 31.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43da…7007backed No | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +119%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 51c | 29.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…140fbacked Yes | 56c | 28.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 54c | 27.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x013f…ca85backed Yes | 55c | 26.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 49c | 25.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea2…b1f5backed No | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 48c | 22.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 52c | 21.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa922…9a52backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on August 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.