Movies · resolved market
Will "One Piece: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b06d4858ee5418d8390c8bc21dd293e8cfd3f0128afb1530ae31c774a0ded94
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,981
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,981 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 6c | 3,606$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.97 | 53 | 11.3%6 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb04…ec13backed No | 46c | 3,569$1,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,654.8 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x643f…e306backed No | 2c | 3,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -37%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae4…d837backed Yes | 80c | 1,224$976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.47 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d93…7f30backed No | 15c | 743$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.96 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0dee…f426backed No | 7c | 665.25$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.31 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -88%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b92…7585backed No | 20c | 612$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.24 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba6f…8cc1backed No | 20c | 612$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.24 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 7c | 605.42$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.19 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x591c…390dbacked No | 14c | 599$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.86 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +120.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 3c | 570.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 211 | 9.5%20 W · 191 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23c1…704bbacked No | 14c | 570$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 6c | 565$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa5…2380backed No | 14c | 537$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.18 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed No | 6c | 516.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 8c | 449.22$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…728abacked Yes | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5147…f078backed Yes | 50c | 361.17$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 8c | 324.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 194 | 40.2%78 W · 116 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe961…8dcabacked No | 4c | 274.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 6c | 237.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 35 | 5.7%2 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 9c | 191.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 48c | 190.06$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.48 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 54c | 164$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.78 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 9c | 139.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1223…d424backed Yes | 62c | 118.53$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.33 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45ef…143bbacked Yes | 56c | 115.55$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.45 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4194…9809backed Yes | 80c | 99.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Yes | 50c | 77.78$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 32c | 69.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed Yes | 63c | 59.97$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 50c | 48.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa75…81f2backed Yes | 41c | 31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +141.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 63c | 29.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 160 | 15.6%25 W · 135 L | -26.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…378ebacked Yes | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 79c | 23.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -10.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcff0…8b8bbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cee…9d08backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x847d…f233backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe346…b831backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9864…9fc8backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2c…0fcabacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e47…bdbfbacked Yes | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bdd…c16cbacked Yes | 74c | 14.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "One Piece: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this week?this page
- Will "Mark Normand: None Too Pleased" be the top global Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "STEEL BALL RUN JoJo's Bizarre Adventure" be the top global Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "Virgin River: Season 7" be the top global Netflix show this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.