UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b07f1a127d41a707531c15036c3a6f8e2f88ed2266e440622991ca63ce532db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,017
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,283
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,017 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26b4…b8a9backed No | 60c | 12,452$7,434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,018.02 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeba4…69fbbacked Yes | 40c | 6,653$2,661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,661.1 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Yes | 42c | 2,320$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968.1 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed No | 36c | 1,803$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,154.08 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Yes | 57c | 1,426$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.1 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 40c | 1,273$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.38 | 360 | 48.3%174 W · 186 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce9…9c2dbacked Yes | 40c | 1,060$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.16 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 40c | 526.34$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.54 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7914…4ce6backed Yes | 40c | 241$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.4 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ece…8786backed No | 58c | 168.07$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.59 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5887…994ebacked Yes | 64c | 166.87$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.79 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5df…0f22backed Yes | 64c | 97.84$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.62 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x773c…cf18backed Yes | 40c | 96.4$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d83…272cbacked No | 58c | 84.03$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da2…22b6backed Yes | 64c | 79.5$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 37c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 175 | 24%42 W · 133 L | -22.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe2…2c56backed No | 60c | 56.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf38d…eb9abacked Yes | 63c | 54.34$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8c1e…ca41backed No | 58c | 51.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b13…13edbacked Yes | 64c | 50.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbce8…a893backed Yes | 64c | 39.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7465…caa8backed Yes | 66c | 29.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 181 | 60.8%110 W · 71 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC 327: Mateusz Gamrot vs. Esteban Ribovics (Lightweight, Prelims)Mateusz Gamrot won
- Will Mateusz Gamrot win by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.