Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b4e7a2a4bfeeffd98b1d8d439aafec0480a73cce27ba1244309764f934d2068
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,621
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,955
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,621 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 35c | 1,395$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.09 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 36c | 600.46$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.89 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 66c | 396$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.64 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 335$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 43c | 300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 295.2$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.42 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 63c | 259.34$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 65c | 208$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.8 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 30c | 194.3$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.58 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 192$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.25 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 63c | 189.3$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.52 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 64c | 177.28$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.14 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 14c | 171.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 33c | 157.03$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.82 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 65c | 150$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 143.41$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 32c | 142.75$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.88 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 68c | 130$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.98 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 67c | 129.44$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.52 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 126.16$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.58 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 30c | 121.58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 39c | 120.44$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 25c | 109.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 42c | 104$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.82 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 36c | 99.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes | 35c | 93.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 64c | 68.79$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 73c | 68.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 31c | 66.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 60c | 61.74$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 66c | 61.62$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 27c | 60.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 34c | 59.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 64c | 54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 36c | 52.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7a…8465backed Yes | 32c | 52.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 63c | 48.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 63c | 47.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7da…138cbacked No | 63c | 47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.20per pick | 67cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 46.49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 36c | 45.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 37c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 23c | 44.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 35c | 43.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 72c | 40.41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfa…dc55backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…0e6dbacked No | 64c | 38.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 64c | 25.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 64c | 25.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 69c | 22.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 64c | 21.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…2a65backed No | 64c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -15.2wins | -0.27per pick | 51cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 29-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…8110backed No | 74c | 20.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 76c | 20.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 19.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…af38backed No | 63c | 17.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on July 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.