Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f569fd019445746cfa803edea1fd0362d7206b9b6a47e658f9bff32d0ea9ccb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,271
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,891
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,271 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 49c | 1,491$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.95 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 46c | 754.05$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.2 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 50c | 669.4$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.12 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 51c | 533$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.26 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 37c | 392.86$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.55 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3458…b5a7backed No | 54c | 367.69$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 57c | 336.43$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.69 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 55c | 241$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.38 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 51c | 219.59$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.99 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 57c | 200.56$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.79 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 45c | 169.3$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.8 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 17c | 165.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed Yes | 46c | 163.04$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.04 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 157.11$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.52 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 59c | 150$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.5 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 37c | 147.15$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.25 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 53c | 146.39$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.59 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 51c | 145$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 47c | 125$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.25 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 54c | 110$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.91 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.67 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 16c | 92.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 18c | 89.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 52c | 89.59$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.58 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 48c | 80.52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.2 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 51c | 80.17$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.97 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 52c | 69.58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 50c | 69.35$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 30c | 68.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 57c | 61.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 45c | 61.11$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.61 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 57c | 60.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 48c | 60.41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.61 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 44c | 52.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.13 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 51c | 52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 54c | 51.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 47c | 51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e91…a1b7backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 53c | 49.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc245…bccbbacked No | 52c | 47.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 61c | 44.21$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 40c | 43.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.98 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 62c | 41.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 58c | 41.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 51c | 38.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 50c | 37.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 51c | 34.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e2…db13backed No | 55c | 33.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed Yes | 46c | 29.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 42c | 28.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 52c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 51c | 27.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 48c | 27.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 70c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 53c | 20.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 52c | 19.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 67c | 17.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 67c | 15.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.