Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b6ab39b25009dbd2c97a429d7957632f50385a28736e02e3569ae1fb570420d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,068
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,043
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,068 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x54a0…4134backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 15c | 318$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.31 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 203.75$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.62 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 191.12$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.19 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 21c | 174.9$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 161$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.58 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 60c | 160.48$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.39 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 41c | 160.16$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.03 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 57c | 150.53$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.93 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 38c | 127.02$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.1 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 55c | 119.8$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.89 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 37c | 115.53$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 115.23$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.49 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 114.79$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…3f63backed Yes | 40c | 98.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 59c | 88.93$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02b6…e113backed Yes | 68c | 88.32$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 38c | 87.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.13 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 53c | 86.35$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…5315backed Yes | 43c | 85.66$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 54c | 77.16$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 37c | 75.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15fb…252dbacked No | 32c | 65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 36c | 65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.59 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked No | 41c | 64.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 38c | 64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 61c | 63.59$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 37c | 63.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.21 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 44c | 63.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 58c | 60.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.41 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 51c | 59.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.32 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 41c | 56.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2e…e75ebacked Yes | 67c | 54.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.39 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 34c | 49.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 46.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 43c | 46.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 63c | 46.34$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 40c | 45.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes | 55c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd00…d1afbacked Yes | 68c | 41.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 52c | 40.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc91c…02debacked No | 62c | 40.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 36c | 40.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 60c | 39.37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 55c | 38.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes | 64c | 38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 46c | 37.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 39c | 35.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 34.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 52c | 33.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 49c | 32.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 40c | 32.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 59c | 31.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 64c | 29.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x521e…a47bbacked Yes | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 40c | 27.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked Yes | 65c | 26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6871…7cb8backed Yes | 57c | 25.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7071…91dfbacked No | 47c | 25.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -6.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -40%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 53c | 25.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7faa…c757backed No | 54c | 23.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2d…0ef3backed Yes | 62c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 58c | 20.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 59c | 18.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6a…4614backed Yes | 65c | 16.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -11.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.