Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee9d4b11f9882bfacf9ccae0be80c0b41a8c2317ff74aefb09188c014e51ca7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,695
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,535
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,695 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 68c | 311.48$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.48 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 28c | 304.21$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.87 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 297.38$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.14 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 281.15$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.49 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc1…fdc6backed No | 71c | 241.96$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.21 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 25c | 213.14$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.46 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…5315backed Yes | 29c | 202.22$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.68 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 198.96$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.93 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 161$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.46 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 66c | 160.48$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.49 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 72c | 144.11$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.92 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 26c | 138.13$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.26 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes | 26c | 132.94$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.65 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 34c | 125.49$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.82 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 38c | 112.83$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.49 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 25c | 104.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.03 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 27c | 100.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.42 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 63c | 93.45$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.08 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 33c | 90$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 27c | 80.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.68 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 34c | 75.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.07 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9b…0cc4backed No | 66c | 71.51$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 64c | 71.21$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.37 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 29c | 68.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.16 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 67.4$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.07 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ee…e1acbacked No | 56c | 66.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 36c | 64.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 66c | 63.59$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.21 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…4134backed Yes | 52c | 58.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…6505backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 46.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 46c | 43.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd00…d1afbacked Yes | 24c | 41.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.59 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 69c | 40.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 65c | 39.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 36c | 37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 32c | 35.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 35c | 32.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 56c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e4…013dbacked No | 76c | 30.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 65c | 29.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 77c | 26.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc91c…02debacked No | 66c | 22.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 66c | 22.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 75c | 20.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 77c | 19.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 16.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 67c | 15.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…dd79backed No | 68c | 14.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.