Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f33e6b94e9ecf167a8de73d5486dfad389c1dfaa57a13ddcf838aa5d0d78339
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,920
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,429
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,920 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 431.62$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.43 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed Yes | 15c | 430.07$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.51 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 10c | 257$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 9c | 214.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 16c | 211.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 23c | 190.1$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.31 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 16c | 161.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 19c | 136.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfad2…3887backed No | 77c | 130.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.19 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 79c | 130$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b73abacked No | 78c | 126.08$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 22c | 105$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 100.27$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…4134backed Yes | 21c | 94.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 20c | 93.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked Yes | 13c | 90.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 141 | 61.7%87 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 11c | 90$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…00b2backed Yes | 17c | 88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 145 | 24.1%35 W · 110 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 28c | 83.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 17c | 77.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed Yes | 18c | 75.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 70.46$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 22c | 67.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdee0…28d5backed No | 80c | 62.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 74cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 77c | 57.78$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 21c | 55.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…b4bbbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 25c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 80c | 23.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6b…33d4backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 76c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb073…54fbbacked No | 80c | 13.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.69 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.