TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on August 1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,418
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,157

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,418 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes51c427.02$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.8624542.9%105 W · 140 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes40c401.62$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.8961249.5%303 W · 309 L+30.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No64c310.99$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.12,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No51c256.17$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.1588628.9%256 W · 630 L-22.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-41.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No45c211.39$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.2610,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes23c201.08$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.593,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6c8…11a0backed Yes50c200.4$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003855.3%21 W · 17 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+23%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xad53…541dbacked Yes50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002969%20 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No53c182.11$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.764,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No68c161$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.234,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No52c153.08$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.12,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes36c148.52$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.656,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No46c132.3$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.9412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No51c128.38$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.745,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes53c126.66$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b04…6477backed Yes49c106.07$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.971650%8 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-16.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked No47c103$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.062,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa047…4ffabacked No46c100.55$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.976059.2%450 W · 310 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No54c95$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.15,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae33…7804backed No52c84.43$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.77857.7%45 W · 33 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-13.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4bbd…5900backed Yes18c79.9$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c18…32c3backed No51c78.12$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.041,04362.9%656 W · 387 L-11.9wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No52c77.34$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.349,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes48c73.5$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.991,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes47c73.04$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.422,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes46c68$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.289,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee08…ca2ebacked Yes74c67.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503141.9%13 W · 18 L-4.2wins-0.13per pick55cpaid-32.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No46c64.58$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.771,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes40c61.21$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4747538.1%181 W · 294 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No33c60.44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.451,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xd6a9…78ebbacked Yes52c57.69$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick60cpaid+41.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No27c55$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.981,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5927…ba9abacked No53c52.37$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.7428762.4%179 W · 108 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1894…a936backed Yes44c51.88$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0166758%387 W · 280 L+48.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No62c50.24$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.3488973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes47c47.07$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9925342.3%107 W · 146 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93f7…c133backed Yes54c46.3$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2518555.7%103 W · 82 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc5e7…c727backed Yes48c44.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.74555.6%25 W · 20 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x367f…ee28backed No51c42$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.583148.4%15 W · 16 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x234c…90dbbacked Yes48c41.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2058138.9%226 W · 355 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes47c40.6$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.043,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd98…1211backed Yes52c39.42$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.44355.8%24 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No50c39$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.525,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No50c37$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.634,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae7a…25eabacked No49c36.74$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8192761.7%572 W · 355 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5c0…eb75backed No55c36.65$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.494656.5%26 W · 20 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid-0.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe3f…abe7backed Yes55c36.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x784a…06c3backed Yes56c35.89$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2034050.6%172 W · 168 L-10.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No52c35.86$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.364,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2cbe…e435backed Yes59c33.76$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2024451.2%125 W · 119 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3901…9761backed No49c33.36$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0555261.6%340 W · 212 L-2.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x471d…32cebacked Yes55c32.44$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8416656.6%94 W · 72 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x11b0…f988backed Yes55c32.44$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8415556.1%87 W · 68 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes60c32.04$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2212660.3%76 W · 50 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes54c31.63$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.951,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fe5…91aabacked Yes32c30.82$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107051.4%36 W · 34 L-6.5wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-23.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes54c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.210750.5%54 W · 53 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2aba…9a6dbacked Yes77c29.79$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.983865.8%25 W · 13 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick74cpaid-11.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes47c28.52$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.428,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked No48c28$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.563,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc11…dadbbacked No47c27$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.3115749%77 W · 80 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe695…538ebacked No47c25.95$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.6781855%450 W · 368 L+1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c3a…8792backed No44c25.89$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.518045.6%82 W · 98 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14af…887ebacked Yes53c25.23$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.274759.6%28 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0982…24e3backed Yes44c25.23$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.135137.9%133 W · 218 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbaf7…b963backed Yes47c25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.753652.8%19 W · 17 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x58f6…167ebacked Yes47c25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.759947.5%47 W · 52 L+6.8wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes47c24.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.852,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68af…2639backed Yes47c23.23$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119048.9%44 W · 46 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No53c23$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.783,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca75…0a64backed No51c22.04$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.81,01058.1%587 W · 423 L-34.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2df6…ef98backed Yes50c21$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.55151%26 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a15…f847backed No51c21$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.29425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x130b…da9abacked Yes48c21$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.081127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No53c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.44,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1946…6367backed No54c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.23351.5%17 W · 16 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x813f…26ecbacked No53c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.480962.1%502 W · 307 L-22.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0aa…3259backed No52c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.63268.8%22 W · 10 L+3.8wins+0.12per pick57cpaid+20.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0114…f0b9backed No53c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.41957.9%11 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick66cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No63c16.31$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9799961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd73…7481backed Yes74c15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.13243.8%14 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.