Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f5057fa3c05f74518857a067d2d4456aac2bc53388d4013ff8035051e91f052
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,150
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,938
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,150 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 37c | 1,434$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900.42 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 59c | 950.27$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.71 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 62c | 568.58$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.67 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 37c | 540.54$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.54 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 538.54$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.82 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 60c | 385.72$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.67 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 64c | 256.94$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.84 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 40c | 234.8$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.42 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 65c | 232.81$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.41 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 27c | 206.38$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.27 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 36c | 205.57$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.18 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b46…8f13backed Yes | 41c | 185.16$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.25 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 174.73$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.92 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 31c | 158.82$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 58c | 137.06$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.53 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 134.83$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.76 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 22c | 133.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 40c | 132.13$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.07 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 39c | 127$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.39 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843e…e477backed No | 57c | 118.17$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.35 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 59c | 110.58$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.03 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 31c | 110$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 37c | 108.39$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.75 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 59c | 105.96$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.96 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked Yes | 33c | 101.39$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.52 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 37c | 99.86$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.31 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 41c | 94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.46 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 43c | 93.46$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.46 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 30c | 93.32$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.5 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 58c | 92$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.17 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 42c | 91$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.56 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0331…f5c7backed Yes | 35c | 77.68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +140.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 39c | 74.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.16 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 32c | 74.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.47 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 68.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.59 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1972…c678backed Yes | 38c | 66.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 65c | 65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.25 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 40c | 53.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 38c | 52.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 47c | 51.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…b631backed No | 60c | 51.63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 58c | 51.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 32c | 50.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.15 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x000b…cf3cbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +122.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e7…c727backed Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.71 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a9…78ebbacked Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 60cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 67c | 48.11$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 60c | 48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 35c | 42.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbd…5900backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1f…3cd1backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68cf…8cf8backed No | 64c | 38.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 57c | 35.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x839e…8a61backed Yes | 35c | 35.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabc8…cda5backed Yes | 43c | 32.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +86%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5211…2f44backed Yes | 40c | 30.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +100.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 63c | 30.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…2639backed Yes | 41c | 26.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 41c | 26.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf7…b963backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1946…6367backed No | 62c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7023…e522backed Yes | 78c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 36°C on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.