Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1bdd71dc8778982640bc0a3566bb10b31a53127b52f012d5317c0919c8400b45
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,739
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,864
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,739 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 1c | 1,321$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92e3…ab49backed Yes | 30c | 1,100$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.6 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 34c | 440.11$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.87 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 387.9$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.27 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…fa82backed No | 4c | 304$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 54 | 5.6%3 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 70c | 284.86$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.41 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 69c | 284.08$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.73 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 28c | 271.76$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.76 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 51c | 255.14$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.28 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58bb…a539backed No | 69c | 144.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 143$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.86 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 31c | 109$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 34c | 102$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.32 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 98.88$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.35 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 63c | 90$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 53c | 73.11$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked No | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked No | 74c | 65$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 36c | 63.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.63 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f6…21d4backed Yes | 35c | 57.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.04 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 33c | 46.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 59c | 45.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 73c | 42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 28c | 40.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe558…0ca2backed Yes | 28c | 39.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 66c | 36.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 65c | 36.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc950…9420backed Yes | 39c | 35.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 130 | 35.4%46 W · 84 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 29c | 35.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8473…5511backed Yes | 29c | 34.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 73c | 31.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 66c | 30.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…d2dabacked Yes | 58c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52f7…b1a8backed No | 66c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 65 | 66.2%43 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 62c | 28.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 74c | 28.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 71c | 28.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 72c | 27.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 46c | 26.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 54c | 25.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.