TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or higher on March 14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$45,434

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,434 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4ffb…119dbacked No1c3,576$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7643021.9%94 W · 336 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+34.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6c2b…36f4backed No73c2,837$2,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,064.157347.9%35 W · 38 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No9c2,641$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.682,29917.8%409 W · 1,890 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x803a…219ebacked Yes79c1,222$961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.9427565.5%180 W · 95 L+13.8wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes25c630.8$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.61,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes26c473.99$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.556,85439.4%2,698 W · 4,156 L+266.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-19.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No13c449.28$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.211,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17a2…242abacked Yes26c388.95$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.953850%19 W · 19 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+32.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes13c373.46$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.438,30949.2%4,089 W · 4,220 L+271.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No12c338.25$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4059742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xb4c4…1513backed Yes14c331.39$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.9614338.5%55 W · 88 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x094e…a709backed No75c300$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2269260.9%56 W · 36 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick55cpaid-0.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No24c300$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.257544.7%257 W · 318 L+36.8wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+12.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No37c285.13$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.627,2319.3%675 W · 6,556 L-1,115.6wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.8%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x7e72…cc9cbacked Yes18c275.51$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.51728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick19cpaid+105.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad62…2aa9backed Yes16c240$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.6816532.7%54 W · 111 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5a5…5737backed Yes19c217.6$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.383920.5%8 W · 31 L-3.9wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-36.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No45c205.51$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.686050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x99f1…946cbacked Yes10c200$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1803053.3%16 W · 14 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+40%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x03d8…5e9abacked No39c200$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.12360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+22%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes11c199.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.991,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed24…1b47backed Yes28c197.48$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.175141.2%21 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3024…8ecebacked Yes15c180.24$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.1617237.2%64 W · 108 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes18c178.42$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.8957527.8%160 W · 415 L+17.2wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4958…16a4backed Yes28c176.57$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.571442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea4c…0e79backed Yes29c171.94$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.941872.2%13 W · 5 L+3.0wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+27.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed Yes25c152.07$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.4842857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes14c150.13$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.442,27214.8%336 W · 1,936 L+52.2wins+0.02per pick12cpaid+22.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes25c147.99$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.9919426.3%51 W · 143 L-0.9wins0.00per pick27cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No19c139.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.258349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No52c123.13$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.6412,47746.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L-43.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes23c119$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.051,09329.6%324 W · 769 L+36.9wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b24…6e4abacked Yes13c116.65$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.997233.3%24 W · 48 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd8d…038bbacked No74c114.21$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.5230268.9%208 W · 94 L+28.2wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+27.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8e7f…7bfbbacked Yes35c113.97$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.974332.6%14 W · 29 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes20c110$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.530428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c110$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.252,65547.3%1,257 W · 1,398 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No77c107.22$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.091,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No78c104.59$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.193,11149.6%1,544 W · 1,567 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes36c103.83$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.5234617.9%62 W · 284 L+14.8wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-26.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5703…4992backed Yes41c101.85$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.12250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+22%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8cb…5ababacked Yes31c101.35$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.43250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes23c100.01$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.0135918.9%68 W · 291 L+19.0wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+38.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd391…093fbacked Yes40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602572%18 W · 7 L+4.1wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+13.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x83de…6cd2backed Yes23c100$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick9cpaid-13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa06e…eba4backed Yes20c99.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.994520%9 W · 36 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes17c94$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes17c90.39$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.9759125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x64b0…ab64backed Yes41c89.54$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.8829459.5%175 W · 119 L+20.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6e2b…6eaabacked Yes14c89$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.51729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick20cpaid+12.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x01b7…766abacked Yes22c89$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x37a2…4965backed Yes18c87.36$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.995228.8%15 W · 37 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+43.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0e36…70e3backed Yes16c82$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.881926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick28cpaid+24.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes26c79.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.1911128.8%32 W · 79 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-11.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes17c77.46$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.571,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8781…88c0backed Yes31c77.25$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.132548.6%158 W · 167 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No78c76.43$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.521,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes20c72.29$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.6734633.8%117 W · 229 L+17.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7785…100dbacked Yes46c67.98$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-42.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc135…a01abacked Yes30c65.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.2461659.3%365 W · 251 L+68.7wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+17%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf0b7…9f11backed Yes17c65.05$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.993828.9%11 W · 27 L-5.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-21.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb2f6…5d2dbacked Yes23c64.94$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507719.5%15 W · 62 L-0.1wins0.00per pick20cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6eb3…d405backed No77c64.94$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010247.1%48 W · 54 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb537…14ccbacked No75c63.73$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.841460.1%249 W · 165 L-21.5wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe7ce…2b6fbacked No75c62.49$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.87933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-47.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x974b…b29bbacked No74c57$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.911154.5%6 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick75cpaid-25.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x85bd…7f75backed No60c55.03$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1525362.8%159 W · 94 L+16.0wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+5.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf3ec…95dabacked Yes20c54.62$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.62633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+62.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ca…2f70backed Yes29c51.47$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.472133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6639…7202backed Yes27c50$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.512735.4%45 W · 82 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No76c48.86$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.1257232.9%188 W · 384 L-104.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-45.9%equal weight31-0.18 edge/pick
0x6516…7b7cbacked Yes29c44.91$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.892433.3%8 W · 16 L-3.0wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-34.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No71c44.78$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9312,87920.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L-2,688.9wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-65.5%equal weight27-0.21 edge/pick
0x620b…10b7backed No79c43$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8220%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4b40…96e3backed No75c40$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3052245%235 W · 287 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2d5…d87abacked Yes25c40$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0461…fcbcbacked No67c39.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.872566.2%480 W · 245 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1add…bc6bbacked No80c37.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.19per pick62cpaid-30.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked No76c33.11$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2559440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No77c32.42$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No68c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3254966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf1c1…1bebbacked No77c29.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0927648.6%134 W · 142 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4da2…41e5backed No72c27.19$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.59929.3%29 W · 70 L+7.2wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+0.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No41c25.77$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.631,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7cc8…2389backed No78c25.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2017156.7%97 W · 74 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef2b…b2aebacked No80c25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-57.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c14…35b8backed No79c25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.754955.1%27 W · 22 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-19.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x39da…5318backed No50c23.95$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.966643.9%29 W · 37 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xadb6…636fbacked No72c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.41963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6c2…c069backed No78c19.23$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151241.7%5 W · 7 L-3.5wins-0.30per pick71cpaid-42.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xbcce…65afbacked No79c19.01$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1527771.5%198 W · 79 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xace5…4457backed No79c19$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.015812.1%7 W · 51 L-7.9wins-0.14per pick26cpaid-43.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x59b4…78c9backed No79c15.13$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126755.2%37 W · 30 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c69…b190backed No68c14.91$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0640%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.