Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or higher on March 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c17a5b3153ff3bac1462d6198703d4bead2f756f8643179600351b8850817b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,434
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,434 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked No | 1c | 3,576$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.76 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2b…36f4backed No | 73c | 2,837$2,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,064.15 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 9c | 2,641$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.68 | 2,299 | 17.8%409 W · 1,890 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked Yes | 79c | 1,222$961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.94 | 275 | 65.5%180 W · 95 L | +13.8wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 25c | 630.8$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.6 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 26c | 473.99$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.55 | 6,854 | 39.4%2,698 W · 4,156 L | +266.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 13c | 449.28$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.21 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17a2…242abacked Yes | 26c | 388.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.95 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 13c | 373.46$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.43 | 8,309 | 49.2%4,089 W · 4,220 L | +271.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 12c | 338.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 14c | 331.39$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.96 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…a709backed No | 75c | 300$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 24c | 300$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 575 | 44.7%257 W · 318 L | +36.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 37c | 285.13$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.62 | 7,231 | 9.3%675 W · 6,556 L | -1,115.6wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7e72…cc9cbacked Yes | 18c | 275.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.51 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +105.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 16c | 240$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.68 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a5…5737backed Yes | 19c | 217.6$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.38 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 45c | 205.51$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.6 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f1…946cbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +40%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03d8…5e9abacked No | 39c | 200$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.1 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 199.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.99 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed24…1b47backed Yes | 28c | 197.48$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.17 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 15c | 180.24$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.16 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 18c | 178.42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.89 | 575 | 27.8%160 W · 415 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4958…16a4backed Yes | 28c | 176.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.57 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea4c…0e79backed Yes | 29c | 171.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.94 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 25c | 152.07$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.48 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 14c | 150.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.44 | 2,272 | 14.8%336 W · 1,936 L | +52.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 25c | 147.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.99 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 19c | 139.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 123.13$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.64 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 23c | 119$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.05 | 1,093 | 29.6%324 W · 769 L | +36.9wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…6e4abacked Yes | 13c | 116.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.99 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 74c | 114.21$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.52 | 302 | 68.9%208 W · 94 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7f…7bfbbacked Yes | 35c | 113.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 20c | 110$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 110$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 2,655 | 47.3%1,257 W · 1,398 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 77c | 107.22$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.09 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 78c | 104.59$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.19 | 3,111 | 49.6%1,544 W · 1,567 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 36c | 103.83$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.52 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5703…4992backed Yes | 41c | 101.85$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cb…5ababacked Yes | 31c | 101.35$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 23c | 100.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.01 | 359 | 18.9%68 W · 291 L | +19.0wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd391…093fbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x83de…6cd2backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | -13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa06e…eba4backed Yes | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.99 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.8 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 17c | 90.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.97 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 41c | 89.54$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.88 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2b…6eaabacked Yes | 14c | 89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01b7…766abacked Yes | 22c | 89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37a2…4965backed Yes | 18c | 87.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.99 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e36…70e3backed Yes | 16c | 82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.88 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes | 26c | 79.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.19 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 17c | 77.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.57 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 31c | 77.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.1 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 78c | 76.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.52 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 20c | 72.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.67 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7785…100dbacked Yes | 46c | 67.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 30c | 65.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.24 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b7…9f11backed Yes | 17c | 65.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.99 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -5.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f6…5d2dbacked Yes | 23c | 64.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 77 | 19.5%15 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 75c | 63.73$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ce…2b6fbacked No | 75c | 62.49$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.87 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x974b…b29bbacked No | 74c | 57$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.91 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 75cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed No | 60c | 55.03$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ec…95dabacked Yes | 20c | 54.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.62 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ca…2f70backed Yes | 29c | 51.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.47 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6639…7202backed Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 76c | 48.86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x6516…7b7cbacked Yes | 29c | 44.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.89 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 71c | 44.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x620b…10b7backed No | 79c | 43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d5…d87abacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 67c | 39.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 725 | 66.2%480 W · 245 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1add…bc6bbacked No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 76c | 33.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 77c | 32.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked No | 77c | 29.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4da2…41e5backed No | 72c | 27.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 41c | 25.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed No | 78c | 25.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2b…b2aebacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c14…35b8backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39da…5318backed No | 50c | 23.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb6…636fbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c2…c069backed No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -3.5wins | -0.30per pick | 71cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 79c | 19.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xace5…4457backed No | 79c | 19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x59b4…78c9backed No | 79c | 15.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c69…b190backed No | 68c | 14.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or higher on March 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.