Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a9d4d0b8a7f5ae70401c3481a41b4e1faae33a0798133ec3ca96e88a5e06edf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,109
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,109 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 1c | 10,160$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.13 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d87…f13cbacked Yes | 5c | 8,701$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.71 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0216…d434backed No | 37c | 6,000$2,219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,781.04 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfef7…3e02backed Yes | 63c | 6,000$3,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,780 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 3c | 5,403$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.56 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 4c | 4,978$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.6 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…bc37backed Yes | 76c | 3,400$2,584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,584 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb94…6757backed No | 24c | 3,300$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,508 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 1c | 2,538$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 2c | 1,580$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 14c | 1,390$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.05 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…56cbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,206$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 159 | 23.3%37 W · 122 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4da2…41e5backed Yes | 70c | 629.08$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.8 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9a…f88abacked Yes | 27c | 574.16$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.9 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked Yes | 71c | 505.49$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.47 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 59c | 472.72$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.59 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 62c | 423.79$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.58 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 4c | 371.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 19c | 337.57$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.98 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 77c | 316.87$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.25 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 13c | 300$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4c…631cbacked No | 67c | 300$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.03 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.25per pick | 54cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 24c | 272.84$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.55 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 41c | 247.22$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 57c | 245.72$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.01 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed24…1b47backed Yes | 24c | 201.54$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.23 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 29c | 193$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.03 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…52f0backed Yes | 38c | 176.5$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.72 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69e3…2288backed Yes | 78c | 170$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.68 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…c055backed Yes | 30c | 165.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 26c | 145.92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…e400backed Yes | 32c | 138.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 30c | 138.05$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.58 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 21c | 134.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 76c | 131.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 46c | 125$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.78 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 69c | 122.65$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed No | 40c | 122.51$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.21 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a5…5737backed No | 30c | 117.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.68 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 27c | 112.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.79 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 27c | 109.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 73c | 105.63$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 26c | 102.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa06e…eba4backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd391…093fbacked Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.98 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 71c | 95.92$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.22 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 71c | 89.98$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 37c | 78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.35 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x540f…4bf4backed No | 78c | 76.1$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 64 | 67.2%43 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2c…64f0backed Yes | 19c | 74.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 77 | 14.3%11 W · 66 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 49c | 73.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 68c | 71.71$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 19c | 68.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 25c | 68.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 56c | 65.82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 31c | 64.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 76c | 61.16$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.41 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 57.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…1274backed Yes | 26c | 56.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 23c | 52.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3db6…4894backed Yes | 29c | 52.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6639…7202backed Yes | 29c | 50.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 39c | 50.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.58 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9a…49e3backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…c66bbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 24c | 48.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…dbe8backed Yes | 31c | 48.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1869…9449backed Yes | 24c | 46.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ca…2f70backed Yes | 33c | 46.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 25c | 44.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8c…2c71backed Yes | 71c | 42.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 28c | 41.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 165 | 20.6%34 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cee…507abacked Yes | 78c | 38.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 38.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d18…fd1bbacked Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…9724backed Yes | 71c | 29.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 44c | 26.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c14…35b8backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaa…f641backed No | 75c | 20.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5be4…3128backed No | 73c | 18.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e7…3de8backed No | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x59b4…78c9backed No | 79c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or higher on March 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.