TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$50,109

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,109 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes1c10,160$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.131,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d87…f13cbacked Yes5c8,701$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.713732.4%12 W · 25 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-42.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0216…d434backed No37c6,000$2,219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,781.042321.7%5 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-58.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfef7…3e02backed Yes63c6,000$3,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,7801729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-39.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes3c5,403$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.562,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes4c4,978$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.643021.9%94 W · 336 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+34.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9453…bc37backed Yes76c3,400$2,584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5841323.1%3 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-51.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb94…6757backed No24c3,300$792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5081612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-62.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes1c2,538$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.721,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f19…e819backed Yes1c2,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1452935.7%189 W · 340 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes2c1,580$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.530428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes14c1,390$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.0557044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5948…56cbbacked Yes1c1,206$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.615923.3%37 W · 122 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4da2…41e5backed Yes70c629.08$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.89929.3%29 W · 70 L+7.2wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+0.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4f9a…f88abacked Yes27c574.16$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.92920.7%6 W · 23 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-31.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x803a…219ebacked Yes71c505.49$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.4726265.6%172 W · 90 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes59c472.72$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.596,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No62c423.79$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.583,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7943…27a1backed Yes4c371.56$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5232044.7%143 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes19c337.57$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.9856627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No77c316.87$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.2591967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes13c300$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386004.2%25 W · 575 L+0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f4c…631cbacked No67c300$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.031478.6%11 W · 3 L+3.5wins+0.25per pick54cpaid+34.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes24c272.84$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.551,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes41c247.22$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.1112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xad62…2aa9backed Yes57c245.72$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.0116532.7%54 W · 111 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed24…1b47backed Yes24c201.54$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.235141.2%21 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes11c200$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No29c193$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.0339810.8%43 W · 355 L+0.8wins0.00per pick11cpaid-30.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72d0…52f0backed Yes38c176.5$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.726845.6%31 W · 37 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x69e3…2288backed Yes78c170$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.685244.2%23 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb917…c055backed Yes30c165.8$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes26c145.92$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5919426.3%51 W · 143 L-0.9wins0.00per pick27cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c3a…e400backed Yes32c138.91$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick37cpaid+5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed No30c138.05$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.5833620.2%68 W · 268 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+8.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes21c134.2$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5536819.6%72 W · 296 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked No76c131.3$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.359440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No46c125$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.781,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No69c122.65$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.51,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf60…79c5backed No40c122.51$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.216445.3%29 W · 35 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5a5…5737backed No30c117.98$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.683920.5%8 W · 31 L-3.9wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-36.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No27c112.79$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.7959742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x888f…23f5backed Yes27c109.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.717338.2%66 W · 107 L+0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6372…4a25backed No73c105.63$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.9741070.5%289 W · 121 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked Yes26c102.86$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.541,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa06e…eba4backed Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254520%9 W · 36 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No28c100$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7258349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd391…093fbacked Yes57c100$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.982572%18 W · 7 L+4.1wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+13.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xefae…3acebacked Yes15c99.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1526827.2%73 W · 195 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick26cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No71c95.92$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.221,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No71c89.98$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.013,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No37c78$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.352,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x540f…4bf4backed No78c76.1$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.976467.2%43 W · 21 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a2c…64f0backed Yes19c74.3$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.967714.3%11 W · 66 L-6.7wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-49.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes49c73.61$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7884124%202 W · 639 L-35.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-42.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No68c71.71$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.741,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes19c68.68$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.82,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes25c68.12$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1720027.5%55 W · 145 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+30.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc135…a01abacked Yes56c65.82$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5861659.3%365 W · 251 L+68.7wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+17%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes31c64.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2055942.6%238 W · 321 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd84…109dbacked Yes76c61.16$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4122028.2%62 W · 158 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes20c57.13$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.177,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x094a…1274backed Yes26c56.69$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157728.6%22 W · 55 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes23c52.4$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9534633.8%117 W · 229 L+17.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3db6…4894backed Yes29c52.34$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154339.5%17 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6639…7202backed Yes29c50.43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7612735.4%45 W · 82 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No39c50.24$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.581,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbf9a…49e3backed Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135129.4%15 W · 36 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.51,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6cb6…c66bbacked Yes21c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.56939.1%27 W · 42 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-19.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe11d…44ecbacked No40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3018041.7%75 W · 105 L-0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe64d…5e09backed No24c48.91$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.2513315%20 W · 113 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick16cpaid+15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc550…dbe8backed Yes31c48.17$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154353.5%23 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1869…9449backed Yes24c46.6$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.991729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick23cpaid+30.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ca…2f70backed Yes33c46.05$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe31e…ec88backed Yes25c44.24$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9355919.1%107 W · 452 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+34.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb8c…2c71backed Yes71c42.37$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309053.3%48 W · 42 L-6.8wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-18.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes28c41.52$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.616520.6%34 W · 131 L+0.3wins0.00per pick20cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cee…507abacked Yes78c38.34$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.894465.9%29 W · 15 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick74cpaid-7.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No53c38.16$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.7712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d18…fd1bbacked Yes65c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8677…9724backed Yes71c29.58$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215540%22 W · 33 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-21.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No44c26.71$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.021,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c14…35b8backed No78c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.54955.1%27 W · 22 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-19.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaaaa…f641backed No75c20.52$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.1310060%60 W · 40 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5be4…3128backed No73c18.7$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.052070%14 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74e7…3de8backed No60c17$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.83534.3%12 W · 23 L-4.3wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-38.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x59b4…78c9backed No79c15.19$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.196755.2%37 W · 30 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.