Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d80ecf647b35e7f8acb605375cda147151f5134c5db052ff4c82d82879eef42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,021
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,021 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,035$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed Yes | 2c | 800$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 745.32$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.59 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaeb…8032backed Yes | 10c | 529.56$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.29 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 6c | 468.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee54…c2dfbacked Yes | 52c | 457.41$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 5c | 400$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 9c | 345.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ced…e412backed Yes | 29c | 299.93$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.98 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 10c | 265.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 8c | 256.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes | 12c | 255.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 5c | 243.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed24…1b47backed Yes | 21c | 219.97$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 10c | 216$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 7c | 209.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1f…b587backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 7c | 199.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 6c | 189.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…56cbbacked Yes | 6c | 166.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 159 | 23.3%37 W · 122 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf2…559cbacked Yes | 22c | 164.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 18c | 160.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfe…b4f9backed No | 50c | 160$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 10c | 147.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9711…e4e8backed Yes | 13c | 134.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22aa…e247backed Yes | 22c | 115.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 9c | 114.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 165 | 20.6%34 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 14c | 106.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed No | 72c | 104.73$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 10c | 101.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 15c | 101.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 12c | 100.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa06e…eba4backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 29c | 99.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…dd4bbacked Yes | 11c | 96.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 11c | 92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 12c | 87.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 83.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.45 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099c…18e8backed Yes | 17c | 83.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 64c | 74.39$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9b…d310backed Yes | 14c | 72.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 61.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e7…2040backed Yes | 30c | 34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…a2f8backed No | 78c | 31.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 118 | 72.9%86 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 79c | 31.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5be9…bf5cbacked No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 79c | 31.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2c…64f0backed No | 69c | 21.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 77 | 14.3%11 W · 66 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 80c | 20.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or higher on March 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.